The Brooklyn Nets threatened to poach Tyler Johnson away from the Miami Heat last summer, but the team matched their offer sheet and rightfully so.
The Miami Heat can’t lose when it comes to Tyler Johnson.
The “poison pill” part of the 24-year old guard’s four-year contract is just one year away, where his salary balloons to $19.2 million from the modest $5.8 million he’ll make this coming season, making him arguably the most polarizing and talked about player on the Heat’s roster.
No matter what happens with Johnson by the end of this season, whether he’s traded or not, the fact remains that matching the Brooklyn Nets’ offer sheet last offseason was the right move for the Heat.
Much of the discussion around Tyler Johnson revolves around the fact that he’ll be one of the higher paid guards in 2018. In fact, as it stands now, he’ll be the 32nd highest paid player in the league, making more than the likes of Klay Thompson, John Wall and Draymond Green. No player in the league will receive a raise this drastic.
That fact leads to a debate devoid of perspective, with Johnson expected to morph into a nearly $20 million per year player immediately. The numbers, at least, suggest that he is well on his way to meeting that expectation, albeit with some work left to do.
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On the offensive end, Johnson had a season that is comparable to players like Wesley Matthews, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson (despite playing just 52 games), all of whom make north of $15 million per year, respectively. Caldwell-Pope was one of the hottest names on the free agent trail and could command a max contract next season if things go well for him in L.A.
Johnson was a more reliable 3-point shooter, finishing his season at just over 37 percent and also logging a more complete game with better averages in rebounds, assists and steals.
Defensively, Johnson finished with a better defensive rating than Kawhi Leonard (not saying he’s better than Kawhi, but the stat is impressive) and is on par with Oklahoma City backcourt duo Russell Westbrook and Andre Roberson, as well as teammate Josh Richardson, DeAndre Jordan and Leonard when it comes to defensive win shares. Again, impressive for someone who played in 73 games, averaged almost 30 minutes per game and never logged a start.
What made Johnson’s re-signing the correct decision for the Heat isn’t just where he is now but where they believe he can go within the organization. There is still work to do for him to become the player the Heat believe he can be and break through to that next plateau of guards in the NBA.
Last season, Johnson became a higher volume player, despite not improving in every category. His points per game went up from 8.7 to 13.7 and the guard proved vital to the team’s winning ways, coming in at third overall in win shares. He played in 73 games compared to just 36 during an injury-riddled 2015-16 season. If the Heat can get another 73-77 game season from Johnson, they’ll again ask him to anchor the bench unit that grew deeper with the addition of Kelly Olynyk and return of Justise Winslow.
Johnson will get his chance to be the featured scorer in some lineups but he also has a chance to shoot up the league’s defensive rankings as well. The mark of the premiere guards in this league (Wall, Westbrook, Beal, etc.) is a proven defensive pedigree along with the consistent offensive threat.
The realistic next step for Johnson is to affect the game not just as a cog in the machine but as the driving force, much like his backcourt mate Goran Dragic can do at times. While Johnson may never become a household name or appear in a shoe commercial, he can still statically impact the game through improving in a few areas.
Johnson shot a modest 37 percent from 3-point range last season, tied with a player who he should look to mirror—reigning Sixth Man of the Year Eric Gordon. But there is a significant change in stature when that number rises to 40 percent. Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Mike Conley, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry and of course, Steph Curry. Some of the game’s best backcourt players.
Defensively, again, there is another tier to go. If Johnson can pair an accelerated offensive game with an improved defensive skill that’ll surely land him among the elite defensive guards (Paul, Danny Green, Andre Iguodala, Curry, Ginobili, etc.) in the NBA, he then earns the title bestowed to very few, a complete player.
In this league, the ability to do a number of things very well earns you a large paycheck at the end of the day.
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The great thing about Tyler Johnson is the growth is certainly still coming and there is nothing to suggest that re-signing him was a mistake. In fact, it could turn out the Heat have him on great value in respect to the rest of the league if he continues to improve.