ESPN predicts the Miami Heat will finish seventh in the East
By Wes Goldberg
After an offseason that shook the balance of power in the Eastern Conference, ESPN projects that the Miami Heat will finish seventh in the standings.
For my Game of Thrones fans here, Petyr Baelish likes to say from one side of his mouth that chaos is a ladder. If that’s truly the case, then the Miami Heat should rise up the standings in the Eastern Conference.
According to ESPN’s latest real plus-minus projections, the Heat will finish seventh in the East, two spots ahead of where they finished last season despite bringing back (mostly) the same team.
Although Pat Riley missed out on Gordon Hayward this summer, he did re-sign Dion Waiters and James Johnson, while adding a valuable role player in Kelly Olynyk and drafting promising big man Bam Adebayo.
A team that went 30-11 over the second half of the season was brought back (with the exception of Willie Reed and Luke Babbitt) to see if the last 41 games was a fluke, or the signs of a playoff team coalescing.
More from All U Can Heat
- Grade the Trade: Heat grab Trae Young in shocking proposal
- NBA 2K24 Ratings: Takeaways and reactions to Miami Heat player ratings
- 4 Teams that should trade for Tyler Herro
- Miami Heat’s Nikola Jovic gives entire world reason to love him
- 1 Advantage the Heat have over every Southeast Division team
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton ran the numbers, and projected 42.3 wins for the Heat. They’d finish behind the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Washington Wizards, Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets (a surprise at no. 5) and Toronto Raptors.
"Having re-signed James Johnson and Dion Waiters, the Heat return the bulk of the team that went 30-11 in the second half of last season. However, continuing to play at that level isn’t realistic. Miami shot 39.0 percent from 3-point range over the final 41 games, and my SCHOENE projection system has that dropping to 34.4 percent this season. Additionally, Heat opponents made just 32.9 percent of their 3s in the final 22 games, which will likely regress to the mean."
Heat fans may wonder how a team that won 41 games after going 11-30 in a rocky first half would only improve by 1.3 wins. According to Pelton, he expects Miami’s red-hot shooting and somewhat lucky defense to regress to the mean. 3-point shooting plays such a vital role in deciding games–especially in the regular season. It’s responsible for Pelton to predict more normalcy in those numbers (here comes a but).
But!
Miami’s defense is specifically built to limit opponents’ 3-point shooting attempts. Long, agile perimeter defender run opponents off the 3-point line toward the rim-protecting Hassan Whiteside.
On offense, the Heat’s 3-point shooting improved through the second half not because shots that weren’t going in during the first half suddenly started falling. Rather, head coach Erik Spoelstra shifted to a drive-and-kick offense predicated on the penetrating ability of Goran Dragic and (a healthy) Dion Waiters. They weren’t getting the same shots anymore, they were getting more open shots.
Next: 5 reasons why the Heat will make the playoffs
The numbers project a modest season for the Heat but, when you look a little closer, there is reason to be more optimistic. But what do I know? I got a C in high school statistics.