Projecting the Heat’s 2017-18 depth chart

With the NBA offseason mostly wrapped up, let’s take a look at how the Miami Heat’s 2017-18 depth chart likely shapes up.

The Miami Heat struck out on their top free agent target, Gordon Hayward, and if they would have signed him it would have made next season’s rotation easy to predict. After Hayward signed instead with the Boston Celtics, however, the Heat pivoted to padding its depth.

They re-signed Dion Waiters and James Johnson, and added former-Boston center Kelly Olynyk. Wayne Ellington remains, Justise Winslow returns from surgery, and new youngsters Bam Adebayo and Jordan Mickey will compete for playing time when they aren’t playing in the developmental league.

This is a best guess at what Miami’s depth chart will look like in the 2017-18 season. Head coach Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid of mixing up his rotations, and it’s a sure bet things will change as the season progresses.

For now, though, this is how things may look, position by position, when the season begins:

Point Guard

Goran Dragic
Tyler Johnson
Derrick Walton Jr.*

Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson are the incumbents at this position. Dragic is Miami’s only true point guard, but Johnson has gotten better each year at running the reserve unit offense. Last season, Johnson’s assist-to-turnover ratio was best on the team, and has improved steadily in each of the past three seasons. Johnson is an unspectacular playmaker, but he is efficient, which is usually as much as you can ask for from a backup point guard.

Walton Jr. is Miami’s first two-way contract player. He’ll spend the season mostly playing for the team’s G-League (formerly D-League) affiliate the Sioux Falls Skyforce, and can appear in up to 45 games at the NBA level. If there is an injury to either Dragic or Johnson, Walton can be called up to play reserve minutes.

Shooting Guard

Dion Waiters
Wayne Ellington
Rodney McGruder

Dion Waiters was a revelation for the Heat last season. Once he got healthy and in shape, Miami took off. He combined with Dragic to form a dynamic backcourt that thrived in Miami’s drive-and-kick offense. The pair created open shots for teammates, and the Heat made a late-season playoff push. Next season, Spoesltra will expect that from Waiters and more.

Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg worked hard to keep Wayne Ellington in Miami. He is the purest 3-point shooter on the roster, and gives the Heat an added dimension in stretching the court. His ability to hit jumpers off of screens is reminiscent of Ray Allen. He’ll be a key reserve.

Rodney McGruder started 60-plus games for the injury-plagued Heat last season, but will likely return to the bench as long as the team stays healthy. McGruder’s size makes him better suited to play shooting guard, but he’ll be a relatively versatile deep-bench option.

Small Forward

Josh Richardson
Justise Winslow

The starting small forward spot is the toughest to predict. I could very well be wrong here, but starting Josh Richardson makes the most sense. Richardson is longer than McGruder, and a better shooter than Justise Winslow, making him a convenient in-between among Miami’s other options. Starting him at the 3 opens up minutes for Tyler Johnson and Ellington off the bench, and allows Winslow to ease his way back into the mix after undergoing shoulder surgery that he only recently recovered from.

Plus, Richardson performs better when he’s the starter. In 19 games off the bench last season, Richardson averaged 10.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per 36 minutes, and shot 29.6 percent from 3-point range. In 34 games as a starter, he averaged 12.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per 36 minutes, and shot 34.1 percent on his 3-point attempts. The Heat would get the most out of him as a starter, and it would help space the offense for Dragic and Waiters.

As for Winslow, his skill set is somewhat redundant of James Johnson. Both are forwards who can create for others, push the pace, and defend at a high level, but are inconsistent perimeter shooters. It doesn’t make sense to start both. If Johnson ends up starting at the 4, it makes sense to let Winslow reprise Johnson’s bench role from last season.

Power Forward

James Johnson
Okaro White
Jordan Mickey
Udonis Haslem

When the Golden State Warriors decided to start Draymond Green, it transformed the team from very good to great. Not to overstate James Johnson’s impact on the Heat, but they could see a similar improvement by unleashing him from the opening tip.

Johnson flashed what he could do as a starter in the final five games of last season. He scored 26 points in a win against Charlotte, and recorded a double-double against Toronto and Washington. As good as he was off the bench, he was even better as a starter. Playing him alongside Hassan Whiteside and three guards gives the Heat a true four-out offense that best leverages the team’s skillsets.

Okaro White and newly-signed Jordan Mickey will compete for reserve minutes, but Winslow and Olynyk will likely fill in most of the minutes when Johnson is on the bench.

Center

Hassan Whiteside
Kelly Olynyk
Bam Adebayo
A.J. Hammons

Hassan Whiteside is set as the starting center, but last season’s backup, Willie Reed, is no longer in Miami. With Whiteside and Reed last season, the Heat maintained 48 minutes of rim protection a game. This season, Miami features change-of-pace centers backing up Whiteside.

Olynyk will see plenty of minutes as Whiteside’s backup. He’s a reliable shooter from deep, sets great screens and moves around the court well. He’ll help space the floor for a reserve unit that could include Winslow. He should also see plenty of minutes alongside other starters. Don’t rule out a lineup that includes both Olynyk and Whiteside in the frontcourt.

Next: 3 Heat lineups to look forward to next season

Rookie Bam Adebayo probably won’t see a lot of playing time barring injury, but he’ll see some. Adebayo is a versatile center oozing with potential, but most of these minutes should go to Whiteside and Olynyk. A.J. Hammons will be a deep reserve, and may be the first on the chopping block if Miami’s decides to use that $4.3 million cap exception they still have in their pocket.