The bottom of the Eastern Conference logjam could be the best place for the Miami Heat come playoff time.
“If you ain’t first, you’re last, you know?”
When Will Ferrell (portraying NASCAR driver Ricky Bobby), uttered this phrase in a fictional post-race interview, he was giving the real sports world, especially the NBA, some tough prose to chew.
This season alone, teams across the league have dismissed the need to tie up the first seed in the playoffs. Though it comes with the benefit of homecourt advantage, units like the Cleveland Cavaliers have made clear that the better team, regardless of seeding, is going to win.
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With under a month left in the regular season, most teams (the Miami Heat included) are doing their best to wrap up loose ends and finish the year on with the elation of victory. Barring a run from the Detroit Pistons, the top-eight Eastern Conference spots are virtually decided, with the only variation being where those eight squads will finish.
Coming off of a tough loss in Portland and a tumble into eighth place, the question looms: are the Heat better off in the eighth seed?
Before you gather your pitchforks and tiki torches, this is by no means a suggestion for the Heat to throw contests. 14 games remain in the season, and Miami could theoretically lap up the third spot by season’s end.
Still, the layout of the current standings, with Miami bringing up the rear, could lend itself to some high-octane, even favorable matchups for the Heat.
If the standings hold, Miami would face the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. With one game between the two remaining, Miami has already proved they are capable of running with the best team in the East.
Splitting the season series thus far 1-1, the Heat stole the first victory on the back of a clutch Wayne Ellington game-winning layup in January. The next month, Miami erased a 17-point Raptors lead to within get within three, before falling short.
Additionally, the storied history between the Heat and Raptors could make for a colorful first round series. With Dwyane Wade in tow in 2016, the Heat pushed the Raptors to seven games, unfazed by the then-second seeded Raptors homecourt advantage.
Concurrent beefs between Goran Dragic and DeMar DeRozan, and Hassan Whiteside and Jonas Valanciunas could give Miami the edge they need to realize an eight-over-one seed upset. The Heat, and Wade, are familiar with playing through adversity.
Remember purple shirt guy?
Assuming the Heat come out on top, the second round offers a bit more uncertainty. But considering the Heat missed the playoffs last year, any experience is good experience for this young team.
The second round would pit the Heat against either the Cavaliers (fourth) or Washington Wizards (fifth) if today’s standings hold. One of these matchups is worse than the other, but a (relatively) healthy Heat team could work wonders in either.
Cleveland has been trying to find it’s new identity after its roster redraw, and the Wizards, who will be presumably reintegrating John Wall into the rotation, could struggle against an armed and ready Heat team.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves – Miami has a long road ahead to be a truly terrifying eighth seed. Injuries to Wade and Whiteside change the team’s dynamic immensely, and force Miami to rethink their offensive and defensive approaches.
But with a little luck and perseverance, the Heat could even end up conference champions from the eighth seed.
Now, this next part may be a stretch.
However, the Boston Celtics are battered and vulnerable, despite holding up the second seed in this fictional playoff scenario. If the Celtics somehow come out of the first and second rounds, they’d be staring down the Heat in the conference finals.
Miami has already demolished the Celtics at full strength and lead the season series 2-1. Who’s to say they couldn’t end them in the playoffs?
For what it’s worth, the Miami Heat have already overcome a number of hurdles this season. The injury bug, player development nor bringing back Wade has totally disrupted Miami’s playoff hopes.
Next: Miami Heat speak on just what Dwyane Wade is bringing to the table
Surviving round one is a challenge in itself, but Miami’s ceiling in the Eastern Conference knows no bound.