Miami Heat’s end of season outlook hinges on tiebreakers
This week, the Miami Heat can embark on securing favorable tiebreakers that could edge out the Washington Wizards and Indiana Pacers.
The Miami Heat, playing in the Southeast Division, are at a fortuitous crossroads. Just a game and a half back of the Eastern Conference sixth place Washington Wizards, the Heat aren’t yet blacklisted from closing the gap.
Seventh in the East, Miami owns a better division record than the Wizards, which could make for a late-season climb through the standings.
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According to the NBA’s playoff tiebreaker rules, in a two-team scenario, the head-to-head record and then division record are the first two benchmarks for determining seeding. Luckily, early season wins pay off, as Miami’s 9-5 record in the division would elevate them into sixth if they catch the Wizards.
In the lead up to securing the Southeast tiebreaker, the Heat also need to prioritize Sunday’s game against the Indiana Pacers.
Ahead in the season series 2-1, a Heat victory would mean 40 wins on the season, a favorable tiebreaker, and just two games behind the Pacers for fifth. And, since five of Indiana’s remaining games come against winning records, the chips could fall to benefit Miami’s end-of-season rise.
"“This is absolutely what you want as professionals,” said head coach Erik Spoelstra on Miami’s remaining games. “Playing this sport, you want your games to have this kind of impact. We’re playing well too.”"
Still, as has been the season’s narrative, nothing comes easy for Miami. Even with Dwyane Wade inching his way back to full strength, the Heat are still without Hassan Whiteside, who missed his seventh straight game at Oklahoma City.
What’s Miami’s Endgame?
Now, with the formalities out of the way, what should Miami’s game plan be for to end the season?
Taking advantage of five winnable games to send the Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks, deeper into the draft lottery.
The playoffs in the East are up for grabs. The Boston Celtics are covered in bandages and the Cleveland Cavaliers are finding their groove (again), while everyone else is best summarized as “on again, off again”.
Though the Cavaliers, or more accurately LeBron James, remain the favorite to come out of the East, Miami’s only losing series against the top eight is with Cleveland. Barring a three-six matchup against Cleveland in the first round, Miami could very well emblazon their logo on the 2018 postseason.
Hardcore (get it?)
Call them the Platinum Group, second unit or simply the core, but Miami’s reserves are keeping things competitive.
Over the last seven games, Kelly Olynyk, Wayne Ellington and resident shapeshifter James Johnson have been playing up to their potential. Olynyk upped his passing, dishing out 4.7 assists over the last seven contests, while Ellington and Johnson are shooting 43.8 and 44 percent from 3 respectively.
Over that period Justise Winslow has also found a rhythm, attacking the basket more evidenced by 5.6 drives per game, up from 4.4 on the season.
While the most favorable matchup might belong to which ever team lands the wounded Celtics, Miami’s core is keeping pace to pose a real playoff threat.
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Ultimately, keeping confidence high, with or without Whiteside to gobble up rebounds and blocks, is key to a deep Miami playoff push.