Miami Heat Preview: Three playoff outcomes follow Raptors contest

The final night of the Miami Heat season is sure to define their playoff run.

“Every game counts.”

If the cliched saying didn’t ring true all season, it certainly will tonight. In the final night of the 2017-18 season, against the Eastern Conference kingpin Toronto Raptors, the Miami Heat can set their playoff seeding.

Miami split the first two games with the Raptors earlier this season, both of which came down to late game Heat possessions. Wayne Ellington played hero the first time around, sending Toronto reeling with a buzzer-beating layup.

For the second game, a sloppy ending was almost salvaged by Josh Richardson, whose desperation 3-ball was off just target.

The close games are synonymous with the Miami Heat season – they can run with the league’s best. More importantly, the two prior contests showed the merits of Miami’s depth.

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Due to injuries and the midseason acquisition of Dwyane Wade, head coach Erik Spoelstra had to mix and match his lineups, playing with and without Wade, Kelly Olynyk and Justise Winslow depending on the occasion.

Miraculously, however, Miami is almost at full health entering tonight’s game. Hassan Whiteside is regaining his stride following a hip injury, and almost all of Miami’s core rotation (Goran Dragic is doubtful due to knee soreness) is available for action.

"“You just have to go out and compete,” Spolestra said of the end season injury doldrums. “You have to be who you are as an organization, whatever that may be. You know what we’re about.”"

With a near full roster and two days before the playoffs begin, tonight’s Heat-Raptors game in Miami has weighty implications.

Eeny, meeny, miny moe

For all of Miami’s effort tonight, a victory over Toronto far from precludes their playoff seeding. The Washington Wizards and Milwaukee Bucks also hold court this evening and sit within a game of Miami in the standings.

If Miami does pull out the win, a Milwaukee loss ensures a jump up to sixth. Currently beneath Miami in eighth, however, a Washington win and Miami loss could drop the Heat to the eighth seed.

Even more scenarios abound, as the Heat could also remain seventh with a Bucks win and Wizards loss. Or if the Heat, Wizards and Bucks all post defeats.

While the odds already rival a round of Russian roulette, Miami’s first round playoff matchup is also contingent on which of the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers end in third.

Regardless of the outcome, Miami has to prioritize its brand of basketball. Against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, Miami was outpaced 38-14 in trips to the free throw line, despite averaging 19.5 on the year. The disparity was further manifested by the fourth quarter scoring, 39-12 in the Thunder’s favor.

If the free throws are coming, Miami needs to find a answer to avoid a scoring drought come playoff time.

North vs. South

Entering tonight, Miami has the chance to plan for a potential first-round series against the equally deep Raptors. Toronto has a variety of defensive lineups, some of which warrant a choice between Whiteside, Olynyk and Bam Adebayo at center.

Whiteside is the likely answer to matchup with Jonas Valanciunas. Their heated backstory could bring out the best in Whiteside, similar to his game against Joel Embiid.

When the Raptors prioritize ball movement without their stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, a switch-ready lineup featuring a James Johnson and Adebayo front court, is more appropriate.

Next: Miami Heat: Why aren’t more people talking about Goran Dragic?

With Rodney McGruder slotting in for Dragic tonight, Miami’s play can set the tone to start the playoffs. Aside from a healthy dose of variation from the opposition, Heat Nation has at least four more games to go.

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