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Should the Miami Heat’s off-season include Kawhi Leonard?

By Brandon Johnson

SAN ANTONIO, TX - NOVEMBER 14: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the San Antonio Spurs chases a loose ball during the game against the Miami Heat on November 14, 2016 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photos by Mark Sobhani/NBAE via Getty Images)
SAN ANTONIO, TX - NOVEMBER 14: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the San Antonio Spurs chases a loose ball during the game against the Miami Heat on November 14, 2016 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photos by Mark Sobhani/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Miami Heat’s off-season power play could include Kawhi Leonard.

The best part of this Miami Heat off-season might be the upcoming trade proposals.

ESPN’s Trade Machine makes musings of where superstars might land a fun exercise. As front offices finagle with their bottom lines, fanbases are making compelling cases for the next big trade.

For the Heat, a team whose narrative ripped on their lack of superstar talent all season, rumors around Kawhi Leonard are the newest craze. The San Antonio Spurs’ All-NBA talent is reported to have a rocky relationship with Leonard, leading to a number of potential destinations.

Though not yet directly involved, Miami is poised to entice Leonard and his camp. According to an NBA.com report, Leonard’s team has expressed interest that he move to a larger market.

While the details of what a larger market means to Leonard are obscure, Miami sits well above San Antonio in the size of its media market. Nielsen’s 2018 data suggests that the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area is the sixteenth largest, broadcasting to over 750,000 more homes than San Antonio.

If Leonard is indeed hoping to leave the Spurs, an off-season trade to Miami may be his best opportunity. Assuming he returns at full strength, Leonard would stand as the undisputed face of the Heat organization, complemented by rising stars and solid role players.

The lingering question surrounding a Leonard to Miami trade then, is whether Miami can make the flip while staying competitive. The Heat have an array of matching salaries to make the trade work in theory but getting the Spurs on board while not gutting the team could prove daunting.

Set to earn $20 million in the 2018-19 season, how does Miami snag Leonard this off-season?

Salary Cap Sudoku

If the Spurs are in a particularly giving mood, Miami could acquire Leonard for as little as Tyler Johnson. Unfortunately, after garnering a $50 million extension in 2016, Johnson’s production is asynchronous with his pockets, likely leaving San Antonio wanting more trade insurance.

A healthy Leonard is one of the NBA’s best two-way players and will demand a package that advances the Spurs’ win now, win forever philosophy. Miami however is trying to string together a contender of its own, potentially leaving volatile proposals off the table.

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ESPN NBA insider André Snellings suggested swapping Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow Bam Adebayo and 2008 Spurs draftee Goran Dragic for Leonard is a flip that works both ways. Miami gains instant production, while Richardson and Winslow have the potential to blossom into Leonard 2.0.

Heat president Pat Riley however has expressed an interest in keeping Miami whole – and that includes its core youngsters.

"‘Show me the right name, and I could be all-in on everything,” Riley said in his exit interview. ”You know me. But it’s got to be the right name … that doesn’t happen very often. Our core guys, we would like to keep together, there’s no doubt. We would like to keep them together and we’d like to add something to it, but that’s going to be a challenge.”"

Leonard has just two seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent. Darting in 2020 would leave Miami in an even larger sinkhole if Winslow, Richardson and Adebayo are off enjoying the San Antonio River Walk.

Of course, some of the fear of Leonard bolting could be assuaged with a sign-and-trade. The Spurs can offer Leonard a designated player exception (in other words, a supermax deal) that would extend his contract through 2024.

By the rules of the collective bargaining agreement, after signing the supermax, the Spurs would have to wait a season before trading Leonard’s contract. But assuming the Heat still have a worthwhile deal, Miami could receive Leonard for a longer stay.

Next: Do the Miami Heat need to remodel their approach to development?

Long story short, Miami’s off-season is going to be a test of power plays, late nights and conference calls. The Heat have bargaining chips, but future-proofing their roster while ensuring a 2019 post-season run will be easier said than done.

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