The Miami Heat have made headway in the past few days, significantly improving their playoff odds. Let’s take a look at what’s changed and what’s ahead.
On the strength of a huge back-to-back sweep, the Miami Heat have boosted their playoff odds significantly. It turns out that winning games that the projections expect you to lose can have that effect.
The Heat dealt the Charlotte Hornets a crippling blow on Sunday, beating them 93-75 and bumping them to 2.5 games behind the eight seed, and then followed that up with a huge road win on the second game of a back-to-back against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Over the past week, the Heat’s odds have jumped from 29 percent on FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projection all the way up to 50 percent. On ESPN’s BPI playoff odds, the Heat are up from 43.9 percent to 48.5 percent.
While that might not seem like a lot, getting three wins against playoff (or playoff fringe) quality opponents over that span is a pretty big deal.
The Heat schedule is still 10th-most difficult with a combined winning percentage of 52.8 percent, but now the Hornets have a tougher gauntlet to run with a combined winning percentage of 54.3 percent, and the Magic aren’t far behind the Heat at 48.9 percent.
The Heat still have very little margin for error, but with a game left against the Orlando Magic they are very close to controlling their own destiny in spite of the Magic having a game in hand and the Heat owning no tiebreakers.
Another mark in the Heat’s favor is that the Brooklyn Nets are sliding, having lost three straight games and are now only a game ahead of the Heat in seventh. The Nets have the toughest schedule left of any team, a true murderer’s row with a combined winning percentage of 61 percent.
While most of the attention has been focused on the Miami Heat’s competition from behind in form of the Magic and Hornets, it remains possible that the Nets continue to falter against their tough remaining schedule and the Heat and Magic actually get in.
In fact, most of the Heat’s playoff chances rise has matched the percentage points lost from both the Nets and the Hornets in the past week.
The next step for the Heat on this playoff march will be to get healthy and get Justise Winslow back into the lineup. Winslow has missed the last two games with a thigh bruise suffered Friday night against the Milwaukee Bucks.
While things are looking up for the Miami Heat, they’re definitely going to need all hands on deck for this final stretch run.