Grading the Heat forwards and Miami’s longterm outlook at the position

With the 2022-2023 Miami Heat season now firmly in the rearview mirror and the sting of the NBA Finals loss dulled by the passage of time, I wanted to begin putting together grades for every player to have suited up for the Heat this past year. Considering how wildly different the regular season and postseason went for the team, each player will receive a regular season grade, a playoff grade, and a composite.

Today, let’s look at the forwards on the Heat team. If you missed the prior report card on centers, you can read it here.

Jimmy Butler

Regular Season Grade: A-

Playoff Grade: A-

Overall Grade: A-

Let me preface by saying that this is grading on a steep curve. Jimmy Butler had one of the best regular seasons and postseasons in franchise history, so why the minus? Regular-season wise, availability was an issue with the 33-year-old Butler; the Heat’s star missed 18 games and gave marginal effort in a handful of others, especially prior to the All-Star break. Even with that criticism, Butler’s pre-ASB break numbers (21.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 5.0 APG; 51-30-85 shooting splits) were as good as he’s ever been. Then, somehow, Butler hit another gear after the break (he notably was not selected to the All-Star Game, but made the more prestigious All-NBA 2nd Team), upping his scoring to 25.6 PPG while putting together Durantian shooting splits of 62-48-85 over his final 20 contests. Butler’s elite combination of finishing at the rim, rarely committing turnovers (1.9 per game), getting to the foul line, and an actual respectable 3-point percentage for a change (35% on admittedly low volume) made him an advanced stats darling and the engine of a Heat team that lacked a ton of rim pressure outside of Butler. Though there’s a strong case that Bam Adebayo was Miami’s best player for at least the first half of the season, the Heat were still Butler’s team.

Despite a career Butler year, the Heat limped into the postseason and appeared to be dead meat against the No. 1 seeded Milwaukee Bucks. But with the emergence of #PlayoffJimmy (27-7-6 on on 47-36-81 splits), a flaccid Heat offense was suddenly a giant slayer, with Miami galvanized by their superstar and rolling through the Eastern Conference. Butler was absolutely stupendous against the Bucks, but following an ankle injury in Game 1 of the Conference Semifinals (Jimmy would miss Game 2), Butler was merely very good rather than absolutely sensational. In fact, the latter half of his performances in the final three rounds are littered with some offensive duds (New York Game 7, Boston Game 6, Denver Game 5). Jimmy, long a marvel of excellence at the rim, was now fanning on routine layups, and he seemed to lose faith in his ability to convert shots as the battle scars of postseason basketball grew (though he denied all injuries/fatigue excuses). But even in those aforementioned poor games, Butler summoned enough late heroics to make all of those games interesting when things appeared to be heading sideways.

I don’t think we’ll get a regular season as good as 2022-23 from Butler ever again, if only because he will likely continue to miss games as the team preserves him for another postseason run, where he has shown time and time again he is up for any challenge.

Grading the Heat centers and Miami’s longterm outlook at the position

We look at the centers who suited up for the Miami Heat and grade each of their performances in the regular season and the playoffs.

Caleb Martin

Regular Season Grade: B

Playoff Grade: A

Overall Grade: A-

With the Heat letting P.J. Tucker walk in free agency, the Heat asked the 6’5″ Caleb Martin to man the power forward spot to start the year. Martin, a springy swingman, ably accepted the task and proved to be a quality starting player for the team. However, he, through little fault of his own, wasn’t a quality power forward. Martin, best used defensively as a guard stopper, was suddenly tangling with players who had inches and dozens of pounds on him and his shooting efficiency dropped from both two and three-point range. When he did manage to switch onto guards, that meant one of the Heat’s backcourt players was suddenly in a mismatch with a power player. The Heat recognized this wasn’t tenable for Martin or the team at large, and added Kevin Love from the buyout market so Martin could return to his role of the year prior, an energy swingman off the bench.

Playoff Caleb though? As much as Jimmy has earned that honorific, Martin may have been the story of the Heat playoff run. Despite coming off the bench in 19 of the Heat’s 23 postseason games, Martin’s scoring average rose to 12.7 and his shooting splits (53-42-83) all trumped what he did in the regular season. Martin hit timely 3s and contorted himself for twisting layups no matter who the opponent was and against Boston, Martin played like a flat-out All-Star, showing isolation scoring skills built off of a deadly quick first step and ability to stop on a time and splash jumpers.

Martin elevated himself from nice piece to core rotation player for the Heat. He currently stands as the ideal supporting player behind a Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo core with his two-way ability and athleticism sorely missing from the rest of the roster. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, Martin should be primed for a big year in 2023-2024.

Duncan Robinson

Regular Season Grade: D-

Playoff Grade: B+

Overall Grade: C

For the fourth consecutive season, Duncan Robinson’s shooting percentage from both 2 and 3 declined. At 32.8%, he was now an outright bad 3-point shooter (though one still respected by defenses). A narrative seemed to develop that Robinson didn’t shoot well because he didn’t receive regular rotation minutes, but this is very much a chicken-or-the-egg situation, Robinson was a rotation staple through the first third of the season, and regularly received 15-25 minutes when he played, but his shooting was so poor, it was difficult to justify giving him more chances as the Heat floundered and hovered below .500 with a putrid offense. His defense also seemed to take a step back as Robinson averaged a career worst 5.6 fouls per 100 possessions, hugely struggling to guard opposing wings in isolation without hacking them. 2022-2023 was easily the worst year of Robinson’s career

A January finger surgery seemed to be a reasonable explanation for Robinson’s poor marksmanship, but upon his return in late-February, it was more of the same (32% from 3 over his last 14 games). With a crowded group of swingmen on the roster, Robinson was on the outside looking in once the postseason began, but with injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, a small window opened for Robinson. To his absolute credit, he answered, shooting a sizzling 44.2% from 3 in the playoffs and terrifying opposing defenses with his constant movement, sometimes drawing two defenders while a teammate got an open layup.

Robinson remains in an interesting position, as his strong postseason play makes his hefty contract marginally more palatable in a trade. But if Miami opts not to re-sign Max Strus and/or swings a trade where Robinson isn’t part of the deal, Duncan could play a very large role on next year’s team. He’s probably not going to be a full-time starter ever again, but his floor spacing and superb chemistry with Bam Adebayo (no one on the team is better at hitting Bam perfectly on the move) make sense around this core.

Max Strus

Regular Season Grade: C

Playoff Grade: C+

Overall Grade: C

Max Strus was another of Miami’s perimeter players to take a step back efficiency-wise. A 35% conversion rate on 7.0 attempts per game was a result of many hot-and-cold nights (a perfect microcosm of his year, Strus had a 31-point, eight-3-pointer game against Charlotte and followed it up with 5 points on 1 of 5 shooting from 3 the very next game). Strus also shuffled in and out of the starting lineup all season (33 starts, 47 off the bench) and didn’t have much of a defined role as his teammates routinely went in and out of lineups, going from backup power forward to starting shooting guard depending on what the team needed that night. There was some marginal growth as a passer (career high 2.1 assists per game; career high 10 assist game against New Orleans in January), but not enough on the fringes to say this was a strong year for Max.

Somehow, Erik Spoelstra’s constant lineup shuffling landed on making Strus a full-time starter for the second consecutive postseason. Despite the rest of the team finding their shooting strokes in the playoffs, Max was somehow even worse from 3, shooting 31.9% over 23 postseason contests. The Heat simply needed more from Max, especially in the Finals, where he shot a wretched 6 of 32 from beyond the arc. Nonetheless, Max gets a slight grade bump for some degree of timely shot making through the first three rounds of the playoffs alongside more inspired defense and hustle.

With Robinson re-establishing himself and Strus’s inconsistency for the second straight playoffs, it is difficult to predict if the free agent Strus will be returning to Miami. If he does come back, he will likely face a similarly crowded rotation and will have to shoot better from outside to regain regular minutes.

Kevin Love

Regular Season Grade: D

Playoff Grade: B-

Overall Grade: B-

The somewhat befuddling decision by the Cleveland Cavaliers to waive Kevin Love proved fortuitous to a Heat team desperately needing additional power players to support the frontcourt. Love, a five-time All Star, was coming off a season where he finished second place in Sixth Man of the Year voting and is arguably the preeminent 3-point shooting big man of the 2010s. Jimmy Butler has a long history of playing well with stretch bigs, so Love seemed like a tailor-made fit, at least on offense. Unfortunately, Love struggled mightily from three in his abbreviated Heat regular season (29.7% in 21 games) and his impact was muted with his defensive limitations well known (though he excelled at drawing charges).

In the postseason, though, Love proved his worth. Though his counting averages remained modest, Love shot a much better 37.5% from three and flung pristine outlet passes like he was taking snaps out of shotgun. He was quickly re-inserted into the starting lineup by Game 3 versus the Milwaukee Bucks, a team whose massive frontline warranted a two-big counter from Miami, and held his own defensively and on the glass. Matchup problems did rear their head when Love ran into a downsized Boston team but after a few DNPs, Love was again back against the beefier frontline of the Denver Nuggets.

The Kevin Love/Caleb Martin shuffling act demonstrated Miami’s inability to address the power forward position, long a glaring hole on the roster. But Love, in addition to the skills he still possesses, was a welcome presence in the Heat locker room and appeared to mesh with the entire team. A return appears to make sense for all parties, but Love may be better served as a full-time bench big man in 2023-2024 and beyond. If his shooting can return to something resembling his career averages, he can still impact winning for this Heat club.

Haywood Highsmith

Regular Season Grade: C-

Playoff Grade: B

Overall Grade: B-

There was mild buzz around Haywood Highsmith in light of the departure of P.J. Tucker. Listed at 6’7″, Highsmith possesses an impressive wingspan and the mobility to cover multiple positions. However, his offense was difficult to stomach to start the year. Through 12 games, Highsmith shot a ghastly 28.6% from the field and 21% from 3. Sure, his playing time was a bit erratic, but with a rough jumper and a lack of athleticism at the basket, offense appeared a fatal flaw. Thankfully, from November 30th on, Highsmith would shoot far better (42 games; 47% from the field, 38% from 3) and though he only received significant playing time when others in the rotation were out, he appeared more and more comfortable as the months went on, learning how to time cuts to the basket for easy finishes and largely taking safer corner threes that he seems to have some comfort with. The Heat would experiment with Highsmith, sometimes playing him at small forward and other times trying him as an uber-small-ball center

The irony is that Highsmith went from unplayable to outright desired in the playoffs. The sample size is microscopic, but Highsmith shot well and looked more than capable defending some of the NBA’s sturdiest forwards. This sequence against Jayson Tatum is a standout play, one that Highsmith may not have been able to make months prior. His minutes began dwindling during the Knicks series, however, and other than a Game 1 blowout loss in Denver, where Highsmith tied a career high with 18 points, Haywood only received garbage-time Finals minutes, one of the few perplexing rotation choices made this playoff run (especially with Cody Zeller’s ineffectiveness) considering the good things that appeared to happen whenever Highsmith checked in.

Highsmith is under contract for another year with Miami. If he can continue to be a functional glue player on offense, his defense should get him on the court. But the lack of trust the staff had in him keeps him in wildcard status rather than full-time rotation piece.

Jamal Cain

Regular Season Grade: C+

Playoff Grade: N/A

Overall Grade: C+

Cain, a rookie, was one of Miami’s two-way contract players and only appeared in 18 games. A 6’7″ combo forward, Cain intrigued in his time and shot the ball well in his small sample (56-35-77 splits). A natural athlete with good size for a perimeter player, Cain possesses traits that aren’t prevalent on this current Heat roster and his G-League production (20.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) suggests he’s overqualified for the minor leagues. Cain is definitely a player worth a closer look next season should Miami decide to retain him.

Nikola Jovic

Regular Season Grade: C+

Playoff Grade: N/A

Overall Grade: C+

Jovic, Miami’s first-round draft pick hadn’t yet finished high school when he was selected. As such, the fresh-faced rookie did not play much in his freshman NBA campaign. A back injury also limited the time he spent in the G-League. When he did play, Jovic demonstrated a natural feel on the offensive side of the floor and his ability to finish as a roller and driver was a welcome surprise (59% on 2-pointers). However, Jovic shot a truly terrible 23% from beyond the arc, somewhat concerning for a player billed as a stretch big. His inexperience on defense also kept him firmly planted on the bench even when the rotation was thin due to other injuries.

The hope is that the poor outside shooting is largely a product of limited minutes and that an offseason with the Heat’s shooting staff will lead to rapid improvement (worth noting Jovic went 18-19 at the foul line. Small sample, but free throwing can be a positive indicator). At 6’10” and perhaps still growing into his body, the idea of Jovic is the type of power forward Miami desperately needs, so year two could be an important one if Miami comes out of summer camp more confident in Jovic’s all-around game.

Summary

With Jimmy Butler, this position group will always be a formidable one. But the Heat have decisions to make on a few of their players. In terms of “wing” depth (SG/SF types), the Heat seem decently positioned for another season, but when it comes to bigger forwards and bigs (SF/PF and PF/C types), further roster supplementation is warranted. Miami cannot go another season toggling between players at the power forward position, but options to bolster that spot seem limited with Miami’s potential trade targets being backcourt players and no free agent moves readily available with Miami over the salary cap. Internal growth may be the best hope for the Heat, and thankfully this staff does have a long track record.