3 ways Duncan Robinson can return to the Heat’s rotation

In advance of the start of training camp on Oct. 3, AllUCanHeat is analyzing the Miami Heat player-by-player. This installment focuses on Duncan Robinson, who might have resuscitated his career during last season’s Finals run.

Since signing a five-year, $90 million contract in 2021, Duncan Robinson has seen his numbers slip and his playing time decline. The last two seasons have led many to wonder if the Miami Heat made a mistake in giving him a long-term deal.

There was a time when Robinson was unquestionably considered one of the best shooters in the NBA. In his first two full seasons with the Heat, he shot 42.7% on 3s. Last season, he became the franchise leader in made 3-pointers. He’s the only player in Heat history to make at least 200 3s in multiple seasons, and he’s done it three times.

But his status among the elite was in jeopardy after seasons of shooting 37% and 33% from 3-point range. Robinson broke out of that two-year slump in the playoffs. In 23 games during the Heat’s Finals run, he rediscovered his shot and averaged 9 points on 44.2% shooting from 3-point range in 18.2 minutes per game.

With Max Strus now in Cleveland and Gabe Vincent in Los Angeles, there’s an opportunity for Robinson to build on his postseason performance and deliver on his contract.

To do that, Robinson will have to keep making open 3s, explore other areas of his game and keep fouling to a minimum.

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Despite the drop in percentages, there’s little doubt that Robinson is still a great shooter. His issue has been staying on the court long enough to break out of slumps and find his rhythm. Defensively, Robinson is and will always be somewhat limited. But his biggest issue over the years has been the fouling. In the last two regular seasons, when Robinson’s minutes declined to career lows, his fouls picked up. In 2021-22, he averaged 3.5 fouls per 36 minutes. It got worse in 2022-23: 4.0 per 36 minutes.

Coaches got on him, showed him clips of pointless reaches and hacks, and he tried hard to work on it. Eventually, that work paid off. In the playoffs, his fouls were down to 3.1 per 36 minutes — a big difference. There’s still room for improvement and, if Robinson can keep himself out of foul trouble, he’ll get more time on the court.

With more time comes more opportunity. Robinson is a 3-point specialist by trade, but he’s flashed other parts of his game. Most notably as a passer.

When defenders close out hard on Robinson, they leave behind a pocket of space that Robinson can attack. A pump fake and a couple of straight-line dribbles can put the defense in rotation and create an opening for a cutter. Or, if a defender goes over on a dribble handoff with Bam Adebayo, Robinson can drive and turn the play into a pick-and-roll.

Robinson’s name has been mentioned as part of a potential Damian Lillard trade, but with Strus and Vincent gone, there’s also a need in Miami for 3-point shooting. If Robinson can build on last season’s playoff run, stay on the court and expand his game, he will be a valuable part of the Heat’s rotation.