The Miami Heat are losers in three of the last four outings, and the same issues are rising.
The dumpster fire third quarters continued as the Sacramento Kings belted them, but there may be a saving grace there. Jimmy Butler has yet to put together an encouraging string of games. Bam Adebayo was getting his old shots and made the Washington Wizards pay, but those same shots weren't falling against the Phoenix Suns en route to a 5 for 21 shooting performance from the Heat's franchise pillar. In close games, the Heat's last-second offense is stale and predictable.
There is much to be concerned about if you root for the squad in the 305, but there is plenty to like, too.
- 1. Pelle Larsson may be the Heat rookie who plays significant minutes
- 2. Terry Rozier should lean more into shooter-mode, but...
- 3. The Heat third quarter problems could be better
- 4. Tyler Herro's range isn't unnoticed
- 5. Let's try something else with the game on the line
1. Pelle Larsson may be the Heat rookie who plays significant minutes
Rookies earn their burn in a Heat jersey being coached by Erik Spoelstra. This dates back to Bam Adebayo, who famously didn't crack the rotation until December of his rookie campaign. But Jaime Jaquez Jr. put in one of the best Heat rookie seasons and was instrumental last year. He was ready. When you're ready, Spo will play you. There's no agenda against rookies here.
Pelle Larsson's readiness was tested as he played 25 and 21 minutes in back-to-back games against the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns this week. After a solid performance in Washington, Larsson checked in the game in the first quarter against the Kings. He displayed a little bit of everything.
Larsson flies around as a do-it-all wing. He's hardly ever stationary as he looks to cut into open space. Larsson has a nice feel for when and where to cut. Larson is a threat from deep, and his 3/5 3 PM game against the Kings will be a regularity at his best, but his defense was head-turning.
In the first clip, Larsson turns former 30 PPG scorer Bradley Beal twice in the backcourt, makes him pick up his dribble, and baits Devin Booker into a turnover. Booker thought he could get that pass to Beal before Larsson stunted him, but that sudden movement threw Booker for a loop. Larsson can wall up guards like De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk on a given possession. He's switchable, and guards aren't his primary assignment, but he can hold his own in space. Many of these minutes came in the absence of last year's rookie sensation Jaime Jaquez Jr. Let's see how the minutes are allocated when Jaquez returns.
Kel'el Ware played instead of Thomas Bryant when Bam Adebayo went to the bench in the Suns' matchup. Bryant has been the brunt of unnecessary criticism, but fans are eager to see what Ware brings to the table.
In his first possession of action, he was on the receiving end of a Tyler Herro alley-oop, but Ware opted to come down with the ball instead of completing the slam. He got the ball blocked as he tried to finish over career journeyman Mason Plumblee. Ware did step out and connect on a triple early in the 4th. That 3-and-D archetype is written all over Ware.
You take the good with the bad with a rookie as raw as Ware. His 7-foot-1 frame pops on film, and offensive weapons weren't too keen on going straight at him. Ware will be a meaningful rim protector in this league, but he might not be there yet. He will play over Bryant moving forward, but what about when Kevin Love returns? Ware had solid flashes in the Suns' loss, but I want to see more stuff that screams that Ware needs to be a regular in the rotation today. He can only get there with playing time, but this Heat team is in win-now mode. That's why they traded for Terry Rozier last year.
2. Terry Rozier should lean more into shooter-mode, but...
The Heat invested a first-round pick in Terry Rozier's services, not to mention giving up their floor general, Kyle Lowry. Rozier was understood to be a different type of creator than Lowry. He's a score-first small guard who can throw lobs and spray out of drive and kicks.
We didn't think Rozier would still be a 23-point scorer. There are more mouths to feed in Miami than in Charlotte, but we still expect more than Rozier has delivered. His poor field goal percentage can be attributed to his shot diet. It's three or rim, and he's never been an elite finisher. Rozier can get to the rim with his turbo speed and oil-slick handles, but finishing when he gets there has never been his forte. Rozier has shot 60% at the rim once in his career. It's no surprise he's at 53% this year.
He hasn't finished great, but he does pressure the rim. Rozier is a handful to stay in front of. He won't be a good finisher, but at least he's hitting threes at a career rate. Rozier is 21 of 52 from beyond the arc this season, and that's been his best trait as a Miami Heat player. Rozier is a risky shot-taker and maker; maybe he should lean into catching and shooting more like Tyler Herro. Rozier is shooting 50% on catch-and-shoot 3-point looks. The problem is that Spo has entrusted Rozier as a true floor general. Who runs this offense if Rozier comes off the ball?
Regarding the starters, Herro is creating less and finishing more plays, Butler isn't up to the task nightly, and Adebayo can't be your lead creator. That leaves Rozier leading the Heat in time of possession at 4.4 seconds. He's being asked to be something he's never been. Rozier played the point guard spot decently in games without LaMelo Ball last year in Charlotte, but scoring is his calling card. It was perimeter defense when he was a Boston Celtic, but that ship has long sailed.
Watching guards like De'Aaron Fox abuse Rozier even when he was in good position puts into perspective how far removed we are from Rozier's 2018 Boston Celtics playoff run. I've already suggested Haywood Highsmith as a potential new starter-- there's a world where he could take Rozier or Nikola Jovic's spot in the starting lineup. Spo gave us a sneak peek of that in the Heat's best third quarter all year.
3. The Heat third quarter problems could be better
It's no secret that teams have bullrushed the Heat in the third period. It's like a new team waltzes onto the court after halftime. Their powers seem to get stolen every break.
This isn't a Warner Bros. production film, though. There is no secret stuff to get the Heat out of this funk. If anything, maybe Haywood Highsmith is your answer.
The Heat had been dominated in the third during all their losses, but not this time against the Suns. Spo rocked the boat and started Highsmith over Jovic to begin the second half. The difference in energy was staggering.
Niko isn't a lazy player by any means, but Highsmith's energy is one of the main factors in his success as an NBA player. He was born to change momentum. In the first nine minutes of the third, Highsmith would make timely stops and effort plays.
After entering the third at 58-55 Miami, the Heat were up 84-71 when Highsmith checked out at 3:01. The closeout attacks looked a lot smoother than years past. Highsmith should be a staple in the rotation with or without his jumper rolling; his defense is that integral. But when he's knocking down shots and burning closeouts, it's lights out.
He did a lot to help the Heat break even this third quarter, but this third wasn't without its warts as the Suns went on a 15-3 run to close. That didn't happen with Highsmith out there. There is only so much a defender can do, but something has to change about these third quarters. Is this a true trend or a blip?
4. Tyler Herro's range isn't unnoticed
The three pillars of great 3-point shooting are range, contested shooting, and confidence. Tyler Herro is three for three. He's been able to show how good a shooter he is off the bounce for years, but now he's playing a different brand of hoops.
We've traded the middies for long balls, not just 3-pointers; these are true deep balls. Take this shot, for example; Herro has a quick trigger here and bricks.
The process is more important than the results. Teams know Herro is letting it fly more, and a phenomenal shooter like him letting it fly so quickly reinforces the idea that defenses have to get up. Anybody shooting 46% with these shots in his diet is one to be feared from 30 feet.
"You have to honor that distance of Tyler Herro," Suns announcer Kevin Ray acknowledges. He's correct, and we see what happens when defenses play Herro too close. He shows off his driving chops with a beautiful left-handed scoop layup. Herro is torching defenses with his shot in a multitude of ways.
Since he's off the ball now, he's making quicker passes, which leverage his shooting.
Booker and Beal know Herro is a threat to shoot a bomb from there, so they both go to the ball, leaving the best player in the team open at the basket. With Herro upping the ante from 3 overall and specifically from deep, lanes are more open, and teammates get easier shots due to his gravity. Let's keep this up and not revert to last year's shot diet. Herro is most valuable used this way. Maybe he should be used as a game-winning shot option, too.
5. Let's try something else with the game on the line
The last possession of the Suns game made headlines. It was an ugly possession that saw Butler second-guess himself when we needed 3. Maybe that was a pump fake, but it didn't work either way. The real question is why Butler takes the last shot every time the Heat are in this situation.
For one, Butler isn't the best shooter on the team, but he takes most game-winning shots regardless of the situation. Miami was down by three in the prior clip, so I would've loved it if something was drawn up for Herro.
He was 5 for 9 from 3 and saw the ball go in on a layup to cut the lead to two on the last Heat possession. I understand Butler is the best creator; he was hoping Beal would help off Herro, and he'd spray it to the corner.
But why would anyone help off Herro in that situation? He's the best shooter on the floor, and Butler has taken the shot in the Heat's late-game offense for years. Beal stunted at Butler after he saw Butler's feet inside the 3-point line. Defenses know Butler is taking the shot, so they stay home and live with the results. Butler has been a clutch shooter forever. He's made some of the biggest shots in Heat history, but diversifying things down the stretch could lead to better results. Herro is fearless and the best shooter on the roster. Let's get him a look when the Heat are down three points in crunch time.