With the NBA season just around the corner, ESPN doesn't have high hopes for the Miami Heat. For what it's worth, it also doesn't have low expectations in 2025-26.
A new simulation of the season for Miami has the Heat basically winding up in the same position they closed out 2024-25 in.
And if these projections come true, it could be a snoozer of a season for Miami.
Miami is projected to finish in the middle
ESPN ran a computer simulation of the entire NBA season, and it has the Heat finishing with a record of 42-40 and finishing 8th in the Eastern Conference.
For what it is worth, this same simulation has Miami making the semifinals of the NBA Cup, but also has them crashing out during the play-in round and not making the main field of 16 in the playoffs.
While there are arguments Miami needs to take a "gap year" in 2025-26 and not do anything too crazy to try and shore up a flawed roster that is built on youth, a 42-40 season would keep the Heat in no man's land without a real directive of whether to be buyers or sellers heading into next year.
The problem with finishing in the middle of the NBA is that you're not in a position to grab a premium prospect out of the draft, but you're also not an appealing option for a big-time free agent looking to make a deep run.
You're just kind of there, waiting to accept fate in the playoffs as the elite teams flex their muscle, while you are left with a "Thanks for coming" certificate on the way out the door.
If that's the ceiling...
What this model also highlights is that, on paper, the ceiling for Heat is low entering the new season. We are going to assume it doesn't factor in all the injuries Miami has piled up early, including Tyler Herro missing at least a month.
It also doesn't factor in that things have just looked off in the preseason, and Miami is sitting with a 0-5 record in preseason play.
If Erik Spoelstra can figure out the right rotations and get his new look "up-tempo" offense to click, maybe Miami defies expectations.
But for now, the outlook for 2025-26 isn't one where Heat fans should expect to raise a banner.