The Miami Heat should be thanking their lucky stars that they were able to strike a trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo this offseason. Because if they didn't, they would've had to deal with a self-inflicted Tyler Herro-sized headache.
One without many great remedy options.
As Sam Vecenie pointed out (which others have hinted as well) on the Game Theory Podcast, if the Heat weren't able to include Herro in the deal for Giannis, it's hard to envision what the "back up" plan would've been for the Heat and the former All-Star guard. The honest fact is that Herro just didn't have much trade value on his own.
"From his conversations with teams, he says Herro didn't have much trade value when the Heat explored options this summer in case the Giannis deal fell through. That value wasn't negative, but it wasn't a lot."
The Heat may have been forced into a big Tyler Herro mistake
It's already been reported that the Heat would've had interest in signing Herro to a contract extension, just not at the max number that his camp would've been demanding. That would've put the two sides at odds with each other, at least on the contract negotiation front.
That likely would've led to the Heat exploring the trade market for Herro, likely to no avail. Knowing the way the Heat operates, they wouldn't have sold Herro for pennies on the dollar either. That means that the Heat would've been in a very difficult, and perhaps even an impossible, position with Herro if the blockbuster deal for Giannis (or any other star player) doesn't materialize this offseason.
When you look at things in that light, Miami can't be anything but grateful. Because if there were no Giannis, there's a chance that the Heat would've been in a very difficult predicament with Herro, likely with no winning hand.
Theoretically speaking, the Heat would've had to pay Herro more than they would've liked (to avoid the possibility of losing him for nothing next summer), or trade him for pennies on the dollar (which is probably only slightly better than losing him for nothing).
Did the Heat mismanage the Tyler Herro situation?
It's impossible to know for a certainty how the Heat would've handled that entire situation, but they'd also only have themselves to blame. The Heat brought this upon themselves for several reasons.
For one, if the Heat knew that Herro was never going to be a capable star player to carry the franchise the way the likes of a Jimmy Butler or Giannis could, they should've sold high on him after his All-Star season. They didn't, and Herro regressed.
Herro's regression, coupled with his contract situation, is the reason why his trade value was even, at best.
By the end of his tenure in Miami, the Heat were asking Herro to be a player that he just couldn't. And that's not necessarily a knock on Herro and, if anything, speaks to more of a complete mismanagement by the Heat.
It's quite a shame how Herro's tenure ended in Miami because, in a vacuum, his development arc is quite impressive. From a late lottery pick to an All-Star, there's nothing that the Heat or Herro should be ashamed of.
It just all came crumbling down at the end. And the Heat have no one else to blame but themselves.
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