Had the Miami Heat not been able to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer, there's a very good chance that they would've moved to re-sign Tyler Herro as he was preparing to enter the final year of his contract.
As Heat insider Ethan Skolnick notes, it likely wouldn't have been at the max, but there certainly would've been a healthy dialogue between the two sides. You'd have to think that if it did come to that, the Heat and Herro would've been able to find a middle ground.
And for most Heat fans, if the front office had gone down that route, most would've viewed it as a big miscalculation. One that could've put the franchise back even further.
Giannis was a blessing for the Heat in multiple ways
Thankfully, it didn't get to that, and the Heat were able to find a path to Giannis. But it's easy to say how big of a mistake it would've been to re-sign Herro in retrospect. In the moment, it would've been hard for the franchise to pass that opportunity up. Especially without a superstar on the way.
But despite that, there's no question that now that we can see this entire situation from an objective macro perspective, especially now that Herro is gone, it was truly the best move for both sides.
There's an argument to make that Herro needed a fresh start as much as the Heat did. Even though both might've had to find a path back to reconciliation had the Giannis trade not gone through, it may not have been the best course of action for either side.
The Heat would've felt they had to re-sign Herro, and Herro likely would have taken the guaranteed money (and it'd be hard to blame him). But that doesn't mean it would've been the best route for them to take.
Tyler Herro and the Heat both needed a fresh start without each other
Based on how the last year had gone, Herro had pretty much hit his ceiling in a Heat uniform. After coming down from the high of making an All-Star team two years ago, it's hard to envision how it would've gotten any better (individually) for him in Miami.
Similarly, the Heat had also reached their ceiling as a team with this core (with Herro co-starring next to Bam Adebayo). The team needed a change, perhaps as much as, if not more than, Herro did.
If Miami had re-signed Herro to anything close to the max, the Heat would've been "stuck" with this foundational core for the next 3-5 years. Considering they could've proven they could be any better than a Play-In Tournament team in the Eastern Conference, it's easy to see how big of a miscalculation it would've been for a team that prides itself on a championship-or-bust mentality.
If the Heat didn't execute their plan to land a superstar this offseason, they would've had to reinvest in Herro at some point in the next 12 months. Had that happened, it's hard to envision how that wouldn't have ended up being a miscalculation of a lifetime for the Heat franchise.
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