Perception of Tyler Herro is far too often clouded by how much money the Miami Heat will be required to pay him in a couple of years. He is, in no uncertain terms, a success story. Sam Quinn of CBS Sports just astutely reminded us of that.
Quinn recently set out to identify the best value pick from every NBA draft since 2000. The exercise, he notes, is not about selecting the biggest or most accomplished name. It’s about figuring out “who got the most bang for their buck with draft slot” factored into the equation.
Upon arriving at the 2019 class, Quinn settled on Herro, who was selected 13th overall. For both the Heat and Herro, this choice amounts to validation. It’s also a bold decision when you consider the other contenders Miami’s guard beat out for the honor.
Tyler Herro edged out some pretty big names
Herro earns the best-value nod from a class that includes Zion Williamson (No. 1), Ja Morant (No. 2), Darius Garland (No. 5), Cam Johnson (No. 11), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (No. 17), Nic Claxton (No. 31), and Daniel Gafford (No. 38). When baking in the bang-for-your-buck context, the decision becomes relatively obvious.
Zion and Ja are immediately removed from consideration. They have arguably underachieved relative to top-two picks. The starting-caliber bigs drafted in the second round, Claxton and Gafford, are somewhat enticing, but invariably not high-end enough. This competition effectively boils down to two names, as Quinn writes:
“The real debate here comes down to Darius Garland at No. 5, and Tyler Herro at No. 13. Garland is better, and there's some irony in this being the debate seeing as how Garland spoke openly about hunting Herro in pick-and-roll last postseason. But it'd be hard to call him eight slots better than Herro given his relatively uninspiring postseason track record. Herro made the Finals as a rookie in 2020, and has proven a capable postseason weapon on offense.”
The throwaway “Garland is better” will rankle Heat fans, but the overarching conclusion is correct.
The Heat mined absurd value from the Tyler Herro pick
Herro now has an All-Star selection under his belt, and won Sixth Man of the Year in 2022. He’s also established himself as one of the NBA’s premier bucket-getters.
In each of the past four seasons, Herro has cleared 20 points per game, 125 made threes, and 37 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Just one other player has done the same during this span. You might have heard of him. His name is Stephen Curry.
This is mind-melting value to get from the No. 13 pick. Teams are typically looking for rotation players in the middle of the first round. The Heat found an All-Star. And at the age of 25, he’s not yet done improving. Just last season, we saw him rework his shot diet to render himself a more dangerous (and scalable) threat within any type of offense.
Remember this as discussions continue over whether the Heat should extend him this October, wait to recommit him, or simply move him altogether. Draft success stories have a way of dulling as the players start earning more lucrative contracts, and as their teams get caught grappling with two timelines.
Whatever happens between Herro and the Heat from here, it changes nothing about how their relationship began: with Miami pulling off one of the biggest draft heists of the past 25 years.