The Miami Heat have lost nine games in a row, putting them squarely in the tank race. Like it or not, this team seems destined for the NBA draft lottery. Only a surprise run through the play-in tournament would propel them to the playoffs and result in keeping their pick in this June’s draft.
As a reminder, the Heat owe a first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, either a top-14 protected pick this year or unprotected in 2025. By missing the playoffs, the Heat would keep their lottery pick this year but will owe an unprotected pick next year.
The worst-case scenario would be keeping a middling pick this summer, thereby opening themselves up to the risk of losing a potentially valuable pick next summer. In other words, if the Heat are going to keep their pick, they’d be better off making it a good one.
After Wednesday night’s loss to the Detroit Pistons, here’s where the Heat stand in the lottery:
- Washington (15-53)
- Utah (16-54)
- Charlotte (17-51)
- New Orleans (19-51)
- Philadelphia (23-46)
- Brooklyn (23-46)
- Toronto (24-45)
- Miami (29-40)
- Chicago (29-40)
- San Antonio (29-39)
- Portland (31-39)
- Dallas (33-37)
- Phoenix (33-37)
- Sacramento (35-33)
The Heat are in a four-team race for spots 8-11 in the lottery, along with the Bulls, Spurs and Trail Blazers.
The difference between the eighth-best lottery odds and 11th is wide. Without ties, the team with the eighth-best odds has a 26.2% chance of landing a top-four pick and a 6% chance of lucking into the top overall pick. Meanwhile, the team with the 11th-best odds has a 9.4% chance of a top-four pick and a 2% chance at the no. 1 pick.
Of course, nobody in Miami would admit to tanking – or even wanting to tank – but they may not have to. The schedule still presents plenty of challenges and coach Erik Spoelstra has admitted he’s out of answers. If Wednesday’s loss to a Cade Cunningham buzzer-beater proved anything, it’s that this team can always find new ways to lose.
The bright side for Miami could be a surprise leap into the top four of a top-heavy draft. Duke’s Cooper Flagg, Rutger’s Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper and Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe headline a highly-touted class of potential difference-makers.