The Board of Governors will vote on the 3-2-1 lottery reform proposal on Thursday, and Jake Fischer of The Stein Line wrote that it's "expected" to receive the 23 votes needed to pass (subscription required). If it does, it will undergo a three-year test run, meaning first-round picks in 2027, 2028, and 2029 will suddenly become far more valuable. In turn, it could clear up the Miami Heat's path to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Teams that finish higher in the standings will not only have a higher chance of getting a top draft pick, but better odds of landing the No. 1 selection. In turn, they will be far more cautious about parting with first-round picks, to the point where some suitors could bow out of the sweepstakes before they even officially begin.
That is the kind of scenario that the Heat is rooting for, as it's no secret that they want Giannis. He apparently wants them, too. Marc Stein reported earlier this week that it's "increasingly perceived" that Miami and Boston "most intrigue" Antetokounmpo.
Lottery reform could play in Heat's favor in Giannis trade
Because he has a player option for 2027-28 that he could decline to become an unrestricted free agent, the team that trades for him will (or should) want confirmation that Giannis will sign an extension.
The Heat already has a leg up there, but that doesn't mean the Bucks have to send him where he wants to go. Milwaukee could prioritize securing the best possible offer, whether it focuses on a specific player or on more draft assets (maybe both. And if teams are less willing to part with assets over the next few years, Miami should stand out even more in an Antetokounmpo trade.
It's simple to understand — the less competition, the better. Teams should've already been wary (including the Heat) about mortgaging their future for Giannis, who is 31 and has had a few injury-ridden seasons. Those two things, plus his contract status, are enough to keep some teams away, and the lottery reform could weed out even more.
That doesn't mean Miami will be the only team chasing Antetokounmpo, as a few squads out West could make a push to counter Victor Wembanyama. Teams in the East could do the same, but to boost their odds of taking advantage in the weaker of the two conferences. When a player like Giannis hits the market, every front office should at least think about it.
After Thursday's vote, though, it may no longer be something that several teams believe is worth giving up first-round picks that could turn into the top pick.
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