The Miami Heat are clearly banking on the idea of a better player becoming available (likely via the buyout market) than the ones that are currently on the free-agent market. It's a big gamble that could end up making or breaking the first year of the Giannis era.
As Barry Jackson notes, this notion was on display as the Heat were unwilling to meet the asking price on Anfernee Simons.
Linked as a possible candidate to replace Norman Powell and Tyler Herro, the Heat were ultimately hesitant to give Simons similar money to what he ended up getting from the Philadelphia 76ers because they're betting (or hoping) a "better" veteran could become available in the near future.
Per source, Anfernee Simons would have welcomed Heat interest but Heat conveyed in past 24 hours that it would be willing to give him only the minimum. (I would have done it to provide a younger player, explosive scoring, but Heat ultimately decided no.) It's a gamble. To me,…
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) July 2, 2026
On one hand, it's completely understandable. Especially if there's a scenario in which the Heat can get a player like DeMar DeRozan or Zach LaVine for cheaper after buyouts. Or maybe it's the idea that Miami is saving some of that money for LeBron James (if he decides he's willing to come back to Miami).
Even beyond those names, which have been reported over the last few days, maybe there is another scenario that the front office is working through that no one knows about. Despite the fact that the Heat's pursuit of Giannis was extremely public, the Heat organization largely does its business behind closed doors.
There's a very real possibility that the Heat is working on another scenario that no one currently knows about.
The Heat's big gamble could end up blowing up in their face
But, either way, this is clearly a big gamble. There's no guarantee either of those players (players mentioned above or not) emerges as a real possibility for the Heat.
And if none of those scenarios end up working out in the Heat's favor, this is one of those gambles that could end up significantly hurting the first-year build around Giannis.
Miami needs to get things right with Giannis, and right away. Giannis is in the latter end of his prime years, and the Heat can't afford to punt the first year of this build. The Heat are sitting in a strong position with Giannis and Bam Adebayo as their two cornerstones, but need to add more to the supporting cast if they're going to emerge as a legit championship contender right away.
As nice a start as Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, and Tim Hardaway Jr. might be, the Heat needs two or three more pieces to make this supporting cast feel complete.
Through the first few days of free agency, the Heat have bypassed some interesting names that, objectively, would've been good fits. But, at the same time, the Heat may be betting on other (and perhaps better) possibilities emerging in the future.
Time will tell whether that this is a gamble that ends up paying off for Miami or not.
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