The Miami Heat will have a lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The only question that remains is where it will land. At least where things stand at the moment, before the NBA Draft Lottery, the Heat sit with the 13th overall selection.
After the Play-In Tournament games, the Heat will officially have a 4.8% percent chance to move into a top 4 pick and a one percent chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick at the NBA Draft Lottery. Either way, their fate will officially be sealed on Sunday, May 10.
The Heat will need some luck at the NBA Draft Lottery
Now that the Heat officially know their percentages heading into the NBA Draft Lottery, it's obvious that they're going to need a little luck. Actually, let me rephrase that. They're going to need a lot of luck.
But, if it's any consolation, the NBA Draft Lottery is kind of where these things have typically happened in the past. That doesn't mean the Heat are going to find the luck to move up, but it has before.
And that's kind of what the fans were begging for when they were clamoring for the Heat to soft tank down the stretch. They just wanted a chance. And, even though it may not be a great one, the Heat have that.
Here are the official draft lottery odds (along with their chances of landing a top 4 and No. 1 pick) now that the NBA Playoffs are set:
2026 NBA Draft Lottery odds
1. Washington Wizards - 52.1% - 14%
2. Indiana Pacers - 52.1% - 14%
3. Brooklyn Nets - 52.1% - 14%
4. Utah Jazz - 45.2% - 11.5%
5. Sacramento Kings - 45.2% - 11.5%
6. Memphis Grizzlies - 37.2% - 9.0%
7. Atlanta Hawks (via NO) - 29.3% - 6.8%
8. Dallas Mavericks - 29.0% - 6.7%
9. Chicago Bulls - 20.3 % - 4.5%
10. Milwaukee Bucks - 13.9% - 3.0%
11. Golden State Warriors - 9.4% - 2.0%
12 Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA) - 7.1% - 1.5%
13. Miami Heat - 4.8% - 1.0%
14. Charlotte Hornets - 2.4% - 0.5%
Whether the Heat gets lucky or not, their draft fate will be sealed in less than a month. The good news is that they will have a pick in the top 14.
And with the way the Heat have been drafting of late, they could be set up well. Even if they aren't able to move up, the Heat should trust their draft team to select a very good prospect. It should be noted that the last time the Heat selected in the lottery, they came away with Tyler Herro.
Heat fans should be hoping for some luck on lottery night, but even if the ping pong balls don't fall their way, they should still be excited about this selection.
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