With the Miami Heat’s season starting next week, it’s time to get into some record predictions. Here’s some context before we get into it.
The Heat have six road games, two back-to-backs (3 of 4 are road games), and play three games in four days twice. However, the Heat only play four teams that made the playoffs last year, and three teams that made the play-in and did not go further. So it’s not the nicest way to start the season, but everyone plays the same opponents in the end.
Here’s what I see coming over the next 10 games as they get the Giannis-era started.
Game 1 (October 21): Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)
The Heat haven't had the best of luck in season openers in recent years. They are 2-4 in their last six, with the wins coming against the eventual 14-68 Pistons in 2023-24 and an absolute domination of the very good Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021-22 season.
Unfortunately for the Heat, this Minnesota Timberwolves team is much better than most teams they play in season openers. Granted, they play at home, and there are significant changes to the team, with the new additions of LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga and the subtractions of Naz Reid and Julius Randle, amongst other moves.
If the Heat didn’t have Giannis now, this would be a scheduled loss. But I’m giving the Heat the win with the Greek Freak now in the building.
Result: Win (1-0)
Game 2 (October 23): Detroit Pistons (Home)
These are the games that I would not have expected the Heat to win last year. The Heat went 1-2 against the Detroit Pistons last season, with their only win coming at home in November.
But the Pistons might not get off to a hot start. With the Jalen Duren debacle clouding the offseason, I’m not sure if their team chemistry or basketball endurance will be there early on, even if the team should still be good again.
Result: Win (2-0)
Game 3 (October 24): Charlotte Hornets (Road)
Two words: trap game. The Heat have actually been very good against the Charlotte Hornets generally in the last few years (10-4 in their last 14 games), but one of the Hornets’ greatest moments in franchise history (there aren’t many) came against the Heat in last year’s play-in game.
Plus, it’s the second night of a back-to-back, and the team will be traveling to Charlotte that night. Can’t win every game.
Result: Loss (2-1)
Game 4 (October 26): Dallas Mavericks (Home)
Kyrie Irving’s audition for the Miami Heat to trade for him (only slightly joking). This team does not look great on paper, but I think they’re much better than we’re giving them credit for.
I expect this to be an incredibly close game. But this team just isn’t experienced or talented enough to get it done. And maybe Klay Thompson feels a way about the Mavericks moving on from him over the offseason.
Result: Win (3-1)
Game 5 (October 28): Atlanta Hawks (Road)
The Heat have absolutely owned the Atlanta Hawks over the last few seasons. The Heat have won five of their last six against the team, including two absolute beatdowns last season, winning by a combined 57 points in their last two matchups.
Now, the Heat added a player that, frankly, the Hawks do not have the personnel to guard: Giannis. Granted, the team actually has a bunch of good defenders, but most of them are wing defenders who can't handle Giannis' size, such as the newly added Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins.
The Hawks will be a competitive team this year, but I expect the Heat’s dominance against them to continue.
Result: Win (4-1)
Game 6 (October 30): Indiana Pacers (Home)
Now we get to the really difficult matchups. While the Timberwolves are likely a better team than the Indiana Pacers in terms of talent, what the Pacers have mastered is chemistry. And while Tyrese Haliburton was out last year, he will come back to pretty much the same roster, with an upgraded center in Ivica Zubac.
Plus, this is the Pacers' first night in a back-to-back series, so there will likely be no restrictions for Haliburton either. Sure, this is a home game, but this is a team that could be back to its winning ways again. And I don’t want to be too delusional and make the Heat 10-0 in their first 10 games.
Result: Loss (4-2)
Game 7 (November 2): Los Angeles Lakers (Road)
This is going to be built up as a pretty big game, as this starts a five-games-in-eight-days West Coast trip for the Heat. Not to mention that it's the Los Angeles Lakers and the Heat. Unfortunately, the Lakers won all three matchups against the Heat last season, including a March 19th game where Luka Doncic put up 60 points.
However, the Heat’s defense last year was not good. This year, it looks like it could be a top 5 unit at worst. The Heat’s offense in these games was actually very good too, so if they can keep that up, I think this is a win.
Result: Win (5-2)
Game 8 (November 4): LA Clippers (Road)
The Heat love losing these games. This is a game against an injured and lackluster roster, and it’s the first night of a back-to-back that features what might be an even worse opponent in the Golden State Warriors.
This, to me, screams random role player dropping 30 in a double-digit loss. Gradey Dick, I expect a career high here.
Result: Loss (5-3)
Game 9 (November 5): Golden State Warriors (Road)
If Steph Curry plays, it’ll be close. They’ll have been well rested while the Heat are coming off the first night of a back-to-back.
Unfortunately, this Warriors team isn't expected to be very good, so even if Steph plays, I have doubts that this team will win this game. The Heat will be hungry to prove themselves as road warriors (no pun intended) early in the season, and games like these will help with that cause.
Result: Win (6-3)
Game 10 (November 8): Sacramento Kings (Road)
Do I even need to explain? This team is just not expected to be that good. It’s a Heat win.
Result: Win (7-3)
After 10 games, the Heat, based on this prediction, will be 7-3. This is a one-game improvement from last year. However, I’d argue the Heat are playing much harder competition this time around.
Now, let’s see how these predictions pan out. The Heat officially begin their regular season on Wednesday, October 21, at home against the Timberwolves.
Add us as a preferred source on Google