The Miami Heat have flaws. They traded a vast majority of their best shooters, lost another to free agency, and now have a single superstar to show for their efforts while lacking the depth that helped them overcome Tyler Herro playing just 33 games in 2025-26.
For as fair as it may be to point those facts out, NBA analyst Michael Pina may have gone a bit too far when he boldly stated his belief that the Heat will miss the playoffs—and the Play-In Tournament.
Draft picks aside, Miami traded four players who consistently factored into their rotation when healthy for Giannis Antetokounmpo: Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionas, and Kel'el Ware. Norman Powell, meanwhile, walked in free agency. That's inevitably compromised their depth, as well as their spacing considering Herro, Jakucionas, and Ware all ranked among their most efficient shooters a season ago.
During a recent episode of The Ringer NBA Show, Pina thus projected that the Heat will finish as the No. 11 seed in the Eastern Conference—and therefore miss the Play-In Tournament.
“I think offensively there’s just so many questions that I have that aren’t great in terms of three-point shooting, spacing, offensive creativity...They got Giannis. They gave up all their depth, like really key depth pieces that actually let that offense function and how they played last year, which was like super fast. Make or miss, we’re taking the ball and we’re sprinting up the court, and we’re making maybe one or two passes, and then we’re going to the rim and seeing what happens."
Pina continued:
"Giannis and Bam together is incongruous, to the point of me putting them at the 11 seed. We haven't talked about the defense yet, and I think the defense will be really good and there's potential there. And credit to all of the rest of teams in the Eastern Conference, which I think a lot of teams have leveled up or gotten healthy, so it's also a byproduct of that. I just think they'll really struggle to score the basketball this season in the half court."
Though the concerns themselves are valid, projecting the Heat to finish as the No. 11 seed and lamenting the personnel losses without applying the context of the remaining resources feels incomplete.
The Ringer's Michael Pina projects Heat to miss the Play-In
The loss of the "key depth pieces" is a legitimate issue Miami will have to overcome in year one of the Antetokounmpo era. Jaquez played a key role as a playmaker and downhill scorer, Ware was a productive big man with shooting range, Powell was the team's go-to scorer at times, and Herro has a rare and well-rounded offensive skill set.
Even Jakucionas shot 42.3 percent from beyond the arc during his rookie season, which is the type of production Miami is now looking for from veterans.
The reality remains, however, that the Heat have a generational new franchise player and one of the greatest coaches in NBA history. Antetokounmpo can't do it all himself, but he and Adebayo project to form one of the most dominant defensive interiors in the Association.
With a potentially elite defense, which Pina acknowledged has potential, the Heat could realistically refine a patchwork offense as they go and trust their ability to get stops to generate enough wins to crack the Play-In Tournament field.
For what it's worth: Every single team that ranked in the top 15 in defensive rating in 2025-26 won at least 42 games—and 12 won at least 45.
Heat have exaggerated flaws—plus, they have resources
There's no way around how important spacing and shot creation from the perimeter will be for Miami in 2026-27. There's also a clear path to improvement for a team that has money to spend, trade resources, and the hardest thing to find in sports: A true No. 1.
Over the past four seasons, Antetokounmpo has averaged 30.1 points in 33.1 minutes per game—and carries the reputation of being a two-time MVP and an NBA champion into his Miami tenure.
Furthermore, the Heat have a $5,616,000 traded player exception from the Haywood Highsmith deal that can help them absorb salary. They also have $8,979,000 from the taxpayer mid-level exception and $5,477,000 from the bi-annual exception to spend on potential key rotational pieces.
Yes, there are voids in the rotation at the moment, but the Heat missing the playoffs is a somewhat incomplete projection based on how much could change before the start of the season.
Furthermore, it ignores the fact that an Antetokounmpo-led team has missed the playoffs just once since 2017. Though it was 2025-26, the critical context is that he played just 36 games. Miami was just under .500 at 17-19 when he played and went 15-31 without him.
Compounded by Spoelstra's uncanny ability to bring the best out of his players, the Heat aren't quite as lost at sea as they may seem. They may have issues, but missing the Play-In feels a tad extreme.
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