The play-in tournament may as well be rebranded as the Chicago Bulls & Miami Heat Invitational. The Heat look to conquer the Bulls for the third straight time in the play-in, but this time around has a different vibe.
The Bulls were 3-0 against the Heat in the regular season. Their red-hot offense shot flamed through a usually solid Heat defense. The regular season doesn't mean much when discussing postseason basketball. Heat and Bulls fans, in particular, know that better than anyone.
If the Heat want to throw the regular season Bulls woes out the window, they must start a rock fight. In two of the three meetings, the Bulls have controlled the pace and got the Heat into an up-and-down offensive-focused game.
Make the game muddy, slow the Bulls down, and hit open looks
Coby White is Chicago's usual vocal point. The Heat had success slowing him down in the matchups. White averaged 20 points, but getting there took every fiber in his bones. Davion Mitchell was one of the catalysts that held White to 39 percent from the floor and 20 percent from three.
Mitchell is consistently in White's air space, never offering a second of Mitchell-less breath. Holding White well below his season efficiency (60% True Shooting vs 55% against Miami) will propel the Heat if they can slow down Josh Giddey.
The Giddey and Alex Caruso swap was clowned in the summer, but Giddey is showing that maybe Chicago was right not to hand out any draft capital in the deal. He's turned it up a notch against Miami, though he's been a stat stuffer the second half of the season (20/10/8, 45 percent from three over the last 25 games).
Giddey averaged a triple-double against the Heat. The backcourt of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson have been cones for the 6-foot-8 Australian guard. More Haywood Highsmith can potentially slow down Giddey.
Highsmith plays at an All-Defense level every season. His versatility, length, and stability guarding the ball is a must-have in most rotations. He'll get the opportunity to play more and be a thorn in Giddey's side if he's knocking down the inevitable looks he'll get.
The Heat offense is already shaky at best. If Highsmith isn't making teams pay for gapping off him, he's a tough play in this one because the Bulls will get shots up on the other end.
Nikola Vučević has been a key clog in the Bulls' sixth in scoring offensive explosion. He stretches the floor and can work in the post. On the other end, he's one of the poorest rim protectors. Opponents shoot 68 percent with him at the basket. Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware, and Tyler Herro need to capitalize on his shortcomings.
Herro, like White, has had a career year but struggled against this team. The counting stats are there but Herro's efficiency has been subpar. His shot selection has been more concerning than the results.
Per Cleaning the Glass, only 5 percent of Herro's shots came at the rim versus Chicago this year. That's a disservice to the growth he's made as a player. Chicago doesn't have stout perimeter defenders with Ayo Dosunmu out of the lineup. Patrick Williams is a plus on that end, but rookie Matas Buzelis took his starting spot.
Herro should dictate the flow of the game and get what he wants. He's driven 19 times a game versus Chicago compared to his 14 drives for the season.
These drives need to result in baskets at the rim. Herro can attack and finish around Vu. Herro's jumper from three hasn't fallen in the Chicago matchups. I'm less concerned with that if he can get it going at the rim. Seeing the ball go through the hoop with layups or free throws will get Herro in rhythm.
Bam can thrive in this matchup, knocking down the open looks Chicago gives him. Bam's made at least two 3-pointers in the last seven games. If Vu hard closes (probably won't), Bam is capable of attacking and cramming on Bulls help defenders.
We could also see Vucevic matched up with Ware. His shoot has been up and down for the year, but with Herro putting pressure on the rim, Ware can skywalk over Vucevic collecting lobs all game.
Bam's shooting is a bonus, but Duncan Robinson can't afford to go cold in this one. He's 4 of 18 from three on the year vs Chicago. The Heat need more.
Athletic wings and streaky shooters on the Bulls side, like Buzelis and Kevin Huerter, need to be kept in check. Buzelis had a 24-point, 10 for 10 from the field explosion against the Heat. Allowing new star(?) Giddey to erupt from three rim attacks is one thing, but Miami can't afford for the whole Bulls team to catch fire.
1. Slow the game down
2. Make it a defensive battle
3. Put size and length on Giddey
4. Herro attacking the rim to open up his game
5. Heat shooters nailing shots
These five keys will lead Miami to a battle for the eighth seed versus the Atlanta Hawks. Miami can't sleepwalk in Chicago. They need to bring their A-game to the United Center.