The feel-good story of Jaime Jaquez Jr. is starting to show its warts as we get deeper into the season. After starting out the year looking like a lock for 6th Man of the Year and/or Most Improved Player, JJJ has started to regress to the mean.
And with a litmus test on deck against Chicago, the Miami Heat are going to need that early-season form of Jaquez Jr. to show up if they hope to pass with flying colors.
Miami takes on Chicago on the road
The last six games for Jaquez Jr. have started to look a bit more like the player most people thought would show up this season. After starting out the season with the 2nd best plus/minus in the NBA behind Nikola Jokic, JJJ had a stretch of five games of zero or negative before finally getting back into the positive against a depleted Golden State lineup.
The issue for Jaquez Jr. is that since the Portland game, his finishing at the rim has started to wane, in part because opposing teams have no fear of his ability to hit from deep. He is still shooting just 20.7% from three, which is 7th worst in the NBA among players with at least 25 attempts early in the season.
His rebounding has also taken a dip, and against the Knicks, he was a turnover machine.
Hello old friend
Death, taxes, and Miami and Chicago stacking up next to each other in the standings. Friday night's NBA Cup contest serves as a test against a Bulls squad that has had many of the same early ups and downs as the Heat.
The Bulls started hot at 6-1, but have come back to Earth since. But even in their descent, Chicago lost to Utah in OT only to turn around and knock off Denver.
In last season's Play-In game against the Bulls, Jaquez Jr. was a non-factor in that win, playing just 1:23 with zero stats and a -4.
With the return of Tyler Herro imminent, Friday night is bound to be one of the final nights of the current rotation before minutes start to get squeezed for the rest of the lineup.
On paper, it would seem Herro would take the slot of Pelle Larsson in the starting lineup. And while Jaquez Jr. and Larsson have different roles, they aren't so different that if JJJ continues to slide, it's unimaginable to see his minutes off the bench shift to Larsson.
As the Heat prepare to take on the Bulls, all eyes will be on Jaquez Jr.