With the Heat tipping off their preseason, one of the biggest roster questions left is who will start at the shooting guard position. The starter for the preseason game was Klay Thompson, who put up zero points in 13 minutes. Instantly, fans were quick to say that he is not fit for the starting role. Because, of course, one preseason appearance that was 13 minutes long determines the rest of the season.
So, should Klay start? Yes, and there's a very simple reason for that: he fits the exact mold of what the Heat have done at shooting guard for years. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, the starting shooting guard on opening day has been either Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, or Norman Powell, with Max Strus close behind in the depth chart.
The battle for the Heat's starting shooting guard position
On the surface, this seems favorable for a player like Tim Hardaway Jr., who is widely known as a good three-point shooter. What he struggles with, compared to the past Heat starting shooting guards, is consistency from beyond the arc.
Powell has shot 38% or better from three since the 2018-19 season. Herro "only" shot under 37.5% from three once in his career. Robinson, as a starter, shot 40.8% over 208 starts between 2020 and 2022.
Meanwhile, Tim Hardaway Jr. has been incredibly streaky throughout his career. His only season shooting 40%+ from three was last season, and that mostly came as a bench player.
In Hardaway Jr.'s last five seasons, he's had three campaigns shooting under 38% from three. Klay Thompson has zero such seasons in his entire career. Plus, with Hardaway Jr. being one of the best bench scorers in the NBA last year, it feels like the best move would be to keep him there.
How about the newly extended Pelle Larsson? Shouldn't he be a shoo-in because of his big contract?
The thing is, that contract was more for the future than it was for now. Larsson is a very good player already and will hopefully be the starting shooting guard of the near future, but Klay has the experience that this Heat lineup needs.
Larsson will undoubtedly be starting games this year when injuries and rest come into play, but he just isn't ready yet. And considering that spacing is always a priority for head coach Erik Spoelstra, throwing out a guy who shot 32.3% from three last year does not seem likely.
Klay's job will be simple: shoot a lot of threes and make them. And even at 36 years old turning 37 this season, I know for a fact he can provide that.
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