Jimmy Butler's take on Heat's 3-point shooting is both right and wrong

NBA offenses can get to a point where the math works against them. That’s where the Miami Heat were last season.

No team took a higher percentage of their shots from the mid-range area than the Heat last season, who took more than a third of their shots from the most inefficient spot on the court. 

Here’s a full breakdown of where Miami’s shots came from and where that frequency ranked compared to the rest of the league, per Cleaning the Glass:

• Rim: 28.5% (28th)
• Mid-range: 35.6% (1st)
• Three-point range: 35.9% (15th)

Relying that much on mid-range shots is a problem. Teams across the league made mid-range jumpers at a 43.4% clip last season. League average at the rim was 66.3%. Fun fact: Both shots are worth two points.

That means a team taking 100 mid-range shots, on average, would have scored about 87 points. Teams that took 100 shots at the rim, on average, would have scored about 133 points. The league-average rate from 3-point range was 37.1%, meaning teams scored 111 points every 100 3-point attempts.

So when people say the mid-range is “the most inefficient shot in basketball,” that’s what they mean. This isn’t advanced stats mumbo jumbo. It’s points going on a scoreboard.

The Heat need to take more 3-pointers, but they don't have to come from Jimmy Butler.

Needless to say, the Heat have to change where a big chunk of their shots come from. Trading out long 2s for shots at the rim or from beyond the arc is a must.

But for as easy as it might be to troubleshoot the problem, it’s more difficult in practice. That’s because the Heat’s top three scorers – Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro – tend to take a majority of their shots from the mid-range. 

When asked if he’d be willing to step into more 3-pointers at 35 years old, Butler made it clear he’s not going to dramatically change his game.

"I'm not going to go out there and jack up a thousand 3s,” Butler said after Miami’s first day of training camp in the Bahamas. “I don't think anybody else is either. We're going to play basketball the right way and we're going to win games no matter what anybody thinks."

When a reporter followed up by asking if it’s a concern that the Heat’s best scorers tend to take shots from the same general area, Butler pushed back.

“I think we’re fine,” Butler said. “I believe that even if we all end up in the same spot, ain’t nobody gonna wanna guard us anyway.”

For what it’s worth, Butler made similar comments this time last year. When I asked if he planned on taking more 3s during last year’s training camp, Butler replied, “No.” He then averaged a Heat-tenure high 2.4 3-point attempts per game. Nobody is going to mistake 22 for Steph Curry, but that’s progress.

Truthfully, the Heat don’t need Butler jacking up a thousand 3s. He’s best when creating advantages in the paint and putting pressure on the defense. If Adebayo steps out for one or two 3-pointers per game and Herro embraces more of an off-ball role, enough 3s will come from the offense and the floor will be better spaced for players like Butler to get to the rim.

Erik Spoelstra said at media day that the Heat need to "innovate." Take a look at last year's numbers and, yes, the Heat’s offense needs to change. But Butler doesn’t need to. If anything, he needs to play more like himself.