Key stats show Jaime Jaquez Jr. may be on his way to Heat stardom

When the Miami Heat selected Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18th overall in the 2024 draft, there was a general feeling that the team went with a safe bet. Jaquez played for four years in college, and a player with that much experience under his belt is typically seen more as a finished product, rather than a future star. Scouting reports, like this one from NBA.com, projected him as a role player.

Looking back on his rookie season, when Jaquez averaged nearly 12 points, four rebounds, and three assists on 49-32-81 shooting splits, earning himself All-Rookie First Team honors, it’s already fairly safe to say that he has outperformed his draft position. (He also gained one of the most epic nicknames in recent memory: Juan Wick.)

Despite this, it still does not feel like Jaquez is considered an up-and-coming star by the masses. Jaquez did not make The Ringer’s list of top 25 players under the age of 25, but this is a conversation he belongs in.

I would contend that being an elite shot creator is what makes an NBA player a star. With the exception of a few other-worldly defensive players (see: Bam Adebayo), being able to consistently create offense is what separates role players from the very best. For this reason, I’ll be focusing on Jaquez’s shot-creation ability, and why his potential to be great at it gives him the chance to be a star in the future.

Basketball Index defines a shot creator as a player with a high rate of isolation, creating his own shots within the offense as a key skill set. I would add that to be an elite shot creator, a player must be able to create shots for teammates, not just himself.

For Jaquez, I looked into what he showed his rookie year, both as a scorer and a playmaker, to see if he can one day be a star-level shot creator.

Efficient Scoring

Jaquez’s shot distribution is a positive indicator of an efficient scorer, and most importantly, he showed an ability to self-create these shots. According to Cleaning the Glass, 40 percent of his shots came at the rim, and he shot 65 percent on these looks. Jaquez averaged more than three unassisted rim attempts per 75 possessions, which ranks in the 80th percentile among all players, per Basketball Index.

His next most-utilized zone was the short mid-range, which consists of shots from 4-14 feet from the basket. Roughly a third of Jaquez’s shots came from this area, which you might think is not ideal for his efficiency, but he made these shots at a 47 percent (79th percentile) clip.

He rarely takes long mid-range shots (only 3 percent of his total attempts), so the fact that a lot of his attempts come from the mid-range is not a concern. Over half of Jaquez’s mid-range field goals were unassisted, further showing his ability to self-create looks.

Another encouraging sign was the proficiency with which he drew fouls. Jaquez was in the 86th percentile in foul rate, earning a trip to the line on 11.3% of his shot attempts, via Cleaning the Glass.

Putting all these numbers together, there is a clear path forward for Jaquez to be a great NBA scorer. The fact that he is already able to self-create looks at the rim (and convert at a rate that’s above league-average) is impressive for a rookie.

Of course, to be star-caliber at these things he will have to improve his efficiency to elite levels while also doing it at a much higher volume, but the signs are there.

Looking at all the games this past season in which Jaquez took at least 15 shots -- albeit a small sample at just nine games -- he averaged 20 points and nearly five assists and six rebounds in these games, while shooting 52 percent from the field.

Playmaking

The second part of the shot-creation equation is being a good enough passer to make plays for teammates. All the attributes I described above will allow Jaquez to collapse defenses and create an advantage for his team.

Once an advantage is created, having the willingness and basketball IQ to know when to shoot or pass to an open teammate is crucial.

This willingness to make the right play might be Jaquez’s most underrated strength. Couper Moorhead of MiamiHeat.com has a great piece on Jaquez that highlights his ability to read the game. Coach Erik Spoelstra had high praise for the rookie, saying,  “He has that it quality, whatever that it is. He’ll make the appropriate play. It’s not like a lot of young players where they’re either too fast or they’re only looking to score.”

If Jaquez sees an open teammate, he doesn’t hesitate to feed them the ball. He passed to a teammate on 42 percent of his drives, ranking in the 65th percentile, per Basketball Index.

It’s not just the willingness to make the plays, either. Jaquez has a knack for reading the defense and finding the open man.

Spoelstra also commended him for this, saying, “A lot of young players are paint-by-numbers. They’re thinking either I’m just going to get to my spot and shoot or they’re trying to do whatever the gameplan may be and not reading what’s happening. He has a poise about him that he can be aggressive and then also read the defense.”

For any high-usage creator, the importance of reading a defense on the fly can’t be understated. The fact that Jaquez has shown flashes of this bodes well for his future.

Lingering Questions

At this point, the biggest question about Jaquez’s game is his three-point shot. The pull up three, one of the deadliest shots in basketball, was not a part of his game at all in his rookie year.

Basketball Index had him in the 17th and 19th percentiles for three-point pull up shot making and three-point pull up shot creation, respectively. Because of his proficiency at self-creating shots at the rim and in the short mid-range, along with his high basketball IQ, Jaquez doesn't need to be an elite threat from three-point range in order to be a star. However, I do see it as something that, if ever significantly improved upon, could raise his ceiling substantially.

Don't get it twised, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a shot creator. In his first season, he already showed that he can create his own shot at above-league-average levels, as well as make the right play once he collapses a defense. The question is, can he be an elite shot creator that puts him at an All-Star level?

Considering it will only be his second season and that Jimmy Butler is still around, we are likely still a few years away from a definitive answer on this. Just don’t be surprised if Juan Wick continues to exceed expectations.