The Miami Heat must be very careful to avoid making a very expensive mistake this offseason. With Tyler Herro eligible for another extension in the near future, Miami needs to tread carefully. Herro could potentially try to lock down a deal in the ballpark of $40 million annually. And while he may have made his first All-Star appearance last season, that kind of number would be wildly out of step with where the league is heading.
Scoring guards, especially ones with limited defensive value, are no longer being paid like foundational stars. Just look around the league. Jordan Poole's value has dipped significantly from two years ago. Zach LaVine has multiple All-Star nods, has averaged 20 points for six of the last seven seasons, and yet the Bulls got back minimal value when they traded him. The market has spoken: unless a player can significantly impact winning on both ends of the floor, front offices are no longer rushing to hand them max-level money.
That is where the Herro conversation becomes so important. Nobody is questioning his ability to score. He averaged 23.9 points per game last season and did it on solid efficiency, while also stepping up in the fourth quarter when games got tight. He has grown as a playmaker, improved his shot selection, and continued to develop within the Heat’s system. But the same issues that have followed him since his rookie year are still lingering.
The Heat have to be careful with paying Herro
Herro's defense is still not the strongest. And while he can win you a game with his shot-making, he can just as easily disappear at times against top-tier defenses.
The Heat are in a tricky spot with their cap situation. If Herro wants to remain in Miami long-term, the front office has to set clear boundaries around what his role and salary should be.
There is nothing wrong with keeping Herro in the fold. But paying him like a number-one option would be a misstep. Miami is built around culture, discipline, and winning basketball. Handing out an overinflated contract to a somewhat streaky scorer would go directly against that identity.
This is not to question Herro's abilities, and it's about not compounding the roster with another deal that could handcuff future flexibility. The Heat have had the reputation of being one of the sharpest organizations in the NBA for quite some time. If they want to stay in that lane, they need to resist the urge to overspend, and avoid turning a good player into a financial liability.