Tyler Herro spearheads youth movement that represents the Heat's future

Rumors and reports will fuel your timeline, but the Miami Heat's on-court product has been over the top. That goes both ways. This team continues to show life and then take two steps back. 

Tyler Herro took another step forward in all aspects-- his growth is the glass-half-full story of the Heats season. Other Heat stories weren't as cheerful as Herro's growth. 

1. Tyler Herro keeps growing
2. You have to feel for Dru Smith
3. This Heat team is too inconsistent to prioritize winning over letting Kel'el Ware touch the floor
4. Young Heat core should play until they can't
5. The Heat were without Jimmy Butler in most games this week: is this sick foreshadowing?

Tyler Herro keeps growing

Last week, we touched on Herro scaling back the mid-range jumpers. That fact remains true today, but it was always apparent that elite scorers have that tool on command when they absolutely need it. Herro is no different and buried the Orlando Magic in their second matchup this week. 

Herro's shot wasn't falling in the three games before his game-winning middy. He tried to shoot his way out of his slump, and that's just what needs to happen as this team's go-to scorer. Though shooters shoot, Herro keeps showing he has more in his bag.

Among guards, Herro has always been a plus rebounder. He's ranked 94th percentile or higher in defensive rebounding percentage for the last five years. Herro has racked up 12 boards in two of the previous four games. 

As an all-around threat, he's contributing even though he was an icicle from the field before the latest Magic matchup. His continued growth as a playmaker for others was brilliant in that mini drought.

Herro is handling pressure better than before. He's operating as the de-facto point guard, and the results are passable for a natural off-ball scorer. To get the most from Herro, you want to put a slashing guard next to him that creates true advantages. Herro isn't a lead on-ball guard, but showcasing the ability to do so in moments adds to his value when used correctly.

He looks this delayed trap straight in the eyes and fires a heater to Nikola Jovic for the open deflating 3. See No. 7 in Black. Herro's been using his gravitational pull all year. The uptick in 3-point makes and attempts makes it easier to get teammates involved with the defensive attention Herro receives. Herro even draws two at the rim with his paint attacks.

Herro pressures the rack, and Nic Claxton has no choice but to respect the sharpshooter because he's driving to the rim at a career rate. He is attacking more than ever with how close teams have to play him now, shooting ~10 percent higher at the hoop than last year. With that in Claxton's mind, Herro can attack the Nets, draw two, and spoon-feed Bam Adebayo for his easiest two of the night (gosh, Bam has needed those, but I have not lost faith. He will figure this out with more assisted baskets like this aiding him).

His growth as a driver and kicker cannot go unnoticed. Herro usually shows off his ridiculous off-hand with nifty layups and floaters. He got stuck in the air and instinctively delivered an on-target lefty pass to Alec Burks, usually unconscious from the corners but hesitant to fire here.

His potential All-Star season has been full of growth across the board. Herro's volume shooting is the baseline for his success, but he's finding new ways to capitalize on said shooting nightly. 

You have to feel for Dru Smith

Dru Smith's season-ending injury news has gone by the wayside with all the Jimmy Butler talk. Smith is out for the year with a torn Achilles. Injuries suck in general, but this one is crushing because Smith was on his way to earning generational wealth. 

Smith was averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, and steals, with a 64 eFG%. Smith's relentless defensive approach is well documented, but his shot-making was shifting the narrative on him.

Shooting 53% from deep commands respect. Smith hadn't yet gained that respect because his 3-point output was low, but he was working his way up. His season high in 3s made was only three, but these triples in the 4th quarter against the Clevland Cavaliers earlier this month were massive. 

Three 3s, all in the fourth quarter in a tight game against the squad with the best record in the NBA-- that was the type of confidence Smith was exuberating. It seemed like he'd been here before.

Smith has netted nearly $2M in his NBA career. With how he contributed to winning basketball, Smith was set to see a steep pay raise. He recovered from a torn ACL last year, so we'll see how he bounces back from this major injury. There's no telling what the Heat or other franchises would offer Smith off this injury, but hopefully, someone will take a chance on him. He's a proven recovery warrior. 

This Heat team is too inconsistent to prioritize winning over letting Kel'el Ware touch the floor

If the Heat pick the youth movement direction, I'm all for playing Kel'el Ware as much as possible. Let's see what we have here.

Bam frequently expresses how lucky Ware is because he's getting minutes early in his rookie year-- Bam wasn't offered the same opportunity. Bam should've played more as a youngster from the start because that Heat team didn't have a true shot at title contention (just like this team). If it's not championship or bust mode, let Ware grow from his inevitable mistakes. 

Ware may get out of position to chase blocks as any young center does, but he's already impacting how opponents operate in the paint. Opponents are shooting a measly 46% at the rim, with Ware as the closest defender per PBP stats. For reference, here are how some of the best defenders in the world are protecting the paint

Victor Wembanyama: 46% on 181 Def Rim FGA 

Rudy Gobert: 53% on 180 DFGRA

Evan Mobley: 56% on 174 DFGRA

Anthony Davis: 58% on 164 DFGRA

Ware has a long way to go, as he's only defended 28 shots at the rim, but the indicators point to him being a great rim protector at his best. He's ultra-long like the Wemby and Goberts of the world, with top-tier big athleticism. He's already intimidating offensive weapons and swaying their shot selection. 

This week's first Orlando Magic game was a basketball abomination when the Heat tallied 8(!) 4th quarter points and blew a 22-point lead. Ware's flashes were one of the few positives from that outing.

Ware creeps over from the strong side and brutally erases Tristan da Silva's layup attempt, adding to the rookie-on-rookie highlight reel. Ware then trots up the court with screen-popping strides to convert another highlight play on the other end.

That's some next-level stuff. Rim protectors who get up the floor that fast are valuable across this league. For Ware, rim-protecting may or may not be the strongest skill in his NBA career. 

Ware is only 3/10 from triple, but the stroke looks fine. His shooting + rim defense will be the key factors determining whether he can operate with Bam efficiently or not. Again, this Heat team shouldn't be viewed as a win-now team. Even if you want Butler to stay, this group, as is, is too streaky to be a contending team.

Let Ware rock out and see how much potential he truly has. Let's see that fit between Ware and Bam sooner rather than later. 

Young Heat core should play until they can't

Nikola Jovic is another young player that needs to be able to play through his mistakes. He was a starter to kick off the year but was part of the two-man switch that turned around the Heat season in a way. 

The Heat have been better without Jovic and Terry Rozier in the starting lineup, but Jovic is a young gun with room to grow. He's a potential core or moveable piece when Miami is finally good enough to compete again.

Jovic racked up a season-high 32 minutes in the win against the Brooklyn Nets, and he didn't disappoint in those minutes. Jovic had a season-high 18 points and connected on 4/5 3-point attempts.

Similarly to Ware, Jovic's shooting is a swing skill that could make or break his NBA career—that stellar shooting night against Brooklyn helped raise Jovic's season 3-point percentage to 37%. That's respectable enough paired when with his long frame and coast-to-coast capabilities.

Jovic shot about 40% from deep in '23-24, so it's no surprise he's finding his mojo. Jovic has been in and out of the rotation this year, and when winning every game is the priority, that decision from Erik Spoelstra made sense. We know the Heat still plan on winning every game on their schedule, but with the Jimmy Butler trade circus in full effect, Miami needs to maximize all its young talent. 

The Heat will never fully tank, and that's commendable. You don't want young players to build terrible habits or cast a loser spell over the franchise. There is a way to play the young players that could be valuable without fully leaning into "The Process." Jovic, Ware, Pelle Larsson, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are the pieces that will determine if the future is full of near .500 seasons or if the Heat can return to the glory days.

The Heat were without Jimmy Butler in most games this week: is this sick foreshadowing?

Jimmy Butler exited the Oklahoma City game with what appeared to be a rolled ankle, but he missed the rest due to illness. He missed the next two games, and the Life Without Butler trailer wasn't great cinema.

The Heats offense was red-lighted against the Western Conference-best Thunder. Miami's 100 points per 100 possession was an eyesore. In hindsight, that's what the Thunder defense does to teams-- they're objectively one of the best defenses ever. 

The Heat slowed down that Thunder offense, but with no Butler in the lineup, 8-point fourth quarters are on the table.

The Heat's colossal collapse in Orlando was one for the history books in the wrong way for Heat Nation, but that loss emphasized that the Heat can't afford to lose Butler for nothing. Luckily, that's not an option.

If the Heat don't trade Butler and he opts out of his contract this summer, they won't let him walk for nothing. That nothing becomes a major player in the second apron world.

Cap space is essential, given the restrictions on franchises with the new CBA. Cap space landed the Heat Butler, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh-- three of the greatest Heat players.

I'll always harp on Bam's relationships with stars across the league. With cap space, one of those stars can be lured to Miami. The Heat are in a no-income-tax state with immaculate scenery, and players would have the chance to join an organization with a championship pedigree. 

You make money, have a good time, and win basketball games in Miami-- not many franchises can offer all three. Bam's college teammate, De'Aaron Fox, may hit free agency next year, and the Heat need to have a chance to strike.

Right now, the Heat surely miss Butler on the floor. They miss the engine of the offense, and without him, 35% of the Heat's cap space is gone. 

Their wins over the Nets and Magic had positive indicators, sending the team to 15-13, but no Butler in the lineup was still felt. There's a reason the Heat are going down to the wire with a depleted Magic squad. 

Stats as of 12/26/2024 and via Basketball Reference, Bball-Index, Cleaning The Glass, NBA.com, and PivotFade