With the Miami Heat's Play-In Tournament positioning locked in, it's officially time to analyze their outcome tree. The way things have shaken out should be quite encouraging.
In order to qualify for the playoffs, they will first need to beat the Charlotte Hornets before beating the loser of the 7-8 game between the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers, without home court in either matchup. That would set them up for a matchup with the East's top-seeded Detroit Pistons. Unlikely as it may seem, there is precedent - last year's Heat team did just that with wins over the Bulls and Hawks to qualify as the 10-seed.
If the Heat fail to qualify for the playoffs, they will enter the back end of the draft lottery. In that scenario, it would actually be more advantageous to lose their first Play-In game, as it would give them slightly better odds to jump into the lottery's top four.
The Heat have a good chance to make it out of the Play-In Tournament
If you were to rank the three possible outcomes by desirability, it pretty clearly goes: win twice and make the playoffs, lose to Charlotte in the 9-10 game, then beat Charlotte and lose to Orlando or Philadelphia. The last outcome represents the one with the least upside and payoff by far, so Miami should do all it can to avoid it.
The good news is there's a real chance that they do. Despite the Hornets' midseason rise to become one of the league's elite teams, the Heat have had their number. Miami won the season series 3-1, going undefeated in games with Bam Adebayo. While it's true that two of those wins came early in the season while Charlotte was floundering, the other ended a six-game Charlotte winning streak during a stretch in which they won 16 of their previous 19 games.
The Heat will be in for a tough contest against Charlotte, but they have reason to be confident they can pull it out. And if they don't, there's minimal downside; they'll have maximized their lottery odds anyway.
The real drama comes from their next opponent. The worst-case scenario sees them play the Magic, who have proven to be a real matchup nightmare. Orlando swept the season series 5-0, including a classic during the In-Season Tournament. Their collective size really bothers Miami on both ends of the floor, and they'd surely be favored on their home turf.
On the other hand, Miami beat Philadelphia in two of their three matchups this year, even taking one with Joel Embiid in the lineup. Even with a likely All-NBA selection and Rookie of the Year finalist in Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, respectively, Miami would have much better odds in this matchup.
Of course, Orlando and Philly will have to play each other to determine who Miami would face off against. Philadelphia may have home court advantage, but Orlando has health on its side. The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid as he recovers from an appendectomy, which hurts their odds considerably. Meanwhile, the Magic have gotten healthy for the first time in months with Franz Wagner and Anthony Black both back in the lineup.
Even with how up-and-down the Magic's season has gone, there's a real world where they secure the 7th seed - and that's the world the Heat should be rooting for. Losing the 8-9 game is the absolute worst of all worlds. The way the bracket has broken out, though, should provide real hope that Miami can come out of this as a winner one way or another.
Either they qualify for their seventh straight playoffs, or they give themselves the best chance at a top pick in a loaded draft as they can. We'll find out which path they take as soon as tonight.
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