Justise Winslow’s numbers project a promising career for the Miami Heat’s draft night steal.
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After losing the 2013-14 NBA Finals to the San Antonio Spurs, then losing LeBron James in free agency and the recent Dwayne Wade frenzy, the Miami Heat needed a break, and they got just that Thursday night when Justise Winslow fell right into their hands with the 10th overall pick.
When scouting or evaluating college prospects, players are often judged by glimpses of potential, referred to as the “eye test,” but tonight we’re going to dig deep into the statistics to found out just what the Heat have in Winslow.
He only played one year in college, but Winslow’s numbers would have been impressive even for a senior. Per 36 minutes in conference games, Winslow averaged 17.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and 1.9 steals, all while shooting an efficient 49.7 percent from the field, 41.5 percent from long range and a true shooting percentage of 58 percent. Winslow had the third best rebounding rate per 40 minutes among all wing players in DraftExpress’ Top-100 players. In his lone college season, he proved to be an all-around prospect who could score, rebound and defend.
Winslow had an impressive regular season, but in the NCAA tournament, his numbers only got more efficient. During the tourney, he shot 50.9 percent from the field and an impressive 8-for-14 (57.1 percent) from beyond the arc. So, not only did Winslow post impressive efficiency numbers as an 18-year-old, but he shined in the biggest games against the best competition, which is important considering he’ll be forced to play in one of the biggest media markets in basketball.
Surprisingly, Winslow’s only weakness is his offensive game. He has the high motor, speed, length and athleticism to guard positions 1-4, but his ability to create at an NBA is still unknown. Defensively, Winslow is a guaranteed stud, but offensively he has some question marks. He’s a great catch-and-shoot guy, but he struggled off the dribble, only hitting 2 of 19 pull-ups on the season, per DraftExpress.
Another number that may be troublesome was his 64 percent free throw percentage. In this aspect, he’s very similar to J.R. Smith, who is a proven 3-point shooter (career 37.2 percent shooter), but struggles from the line with a mediocre clip of 73.7 percent.
This may scare some Heat fans, but a very similar comparison for Winslow is Lance Stephenson, who recorded the exact same height (6’6.45”) and wingspan(6’10.25”) when coming out of the draft, per DraftExpress. Both guards play with a high motor and good on-ball defense, but in Winslow’s defense, he’s a significantly better shooter, especially from beyond the arc. In college, Stephenson only shot 21.9 percent from three.
Some experts have even compared Winslow to former Duke and former Heat player, Shane Battier. Both players are great defenders and shooters, and they both posted similar stat-lines during their last college season. However, the big difference here is that Battier stayed all four years at Duke, and Winslow was a one-and-done prospect. Battier was 23 years old when he made his NBA debut. Barring any injuries, Winslow will make his debut at only 19 years old.
Winslow is young, and his stats are just as good as his intangibles. He clearly passes both the eye test and the statistical examination, but only time will tell if this draft night “steal” will actually develop into a star.