Can we trust Josh Richardson’s rapid rise?
He could be the steal of the draft, but it might be too early to tell if Miami Heat rookie Josh Richardson’s silky smooth jump shot is true gold or just an aberration.
The God Father strikes again.
There’s no doubt Miami Heat president Pat Riley plucked one of the biggest steals of the 2015 NBA draft, but it might be too early to tell if Josh Richardson’s silky smooth jump shot is true gold or just an aberration.
The second-round pick has been lighting up the court this season, and has proven to be one of the hottest 3-point shooters in the league. In March, Richardson is shooting 63.5 percent from beyond the arc. No, that’s not a typo.
For the season, Richardson is connecting at a clip of 50 percent on an average of two 3-point attempts per contest. His sweet spot seems to be from the right corner, where he’s shooting 73.3 percent.
Even more impressive, he’s managed to avoid taking forced shots. Only two percent of his field goal attempts consist of pull-up 3-point attempts, and 40.8 percent of his attempts come from catch-and-shoot opportunities beyond the arc, according to NBA.com.
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Already known for being a lock-down perimeter defender, if Richardson can continue to succeed from downtown, he could quickly become one of the premier 3-and-D guys in this league.
Iman Shumpert is currently making $10 million per season, and he’s only considered a capable 3-point shooter and an above-average defender. This speaks to the true value of a player who can perform on both ends of the court. If Richardson can continue his defensive success while also proving to be a consistent long-range threat, he could become a very rich man.
However, when you find a Rolex for $15, you might want to question it’s legitimacy.
Obviously no player, not even Steph Curry, can sustain such an extraordinary level of efficiency, but there’s reason to believe Richardson might not even be a 40 percent shooter. In college, he only shot 31.8 percent on 3-point attempts, and that’s with a closer line. Richardson shot 35.9 percent on those attempts in his senior year, but that’s still not exceptional.
There’s really no statistical evidence from Richardson’s past to prove he can continue to perform anywhere close to this current level of success. In his defense, it appears Richardson has worked tirelessly over the last couple of months with coach Eric Spoelstra to improve his shooting consistency. According to the Palm Beach Post, Spoelstra would not let the rookie leave practice until he could make 70 out of 100 3-point attempts.
In the article, Spoelstra spoke about Richardson’s shooting potential:
"What we saw when we first had him in for a workout, the same thing we saw with Tyler (Johnson) a year ago, was a shot that was mechanically pretty solid. He didn’t shoot a real high percentage in our shooting drills, but you saw it was something you could work with. I remember in a coaching meeting we said, ‘J-Rich will improve dramatically with our program just with a ton of reps."
As of late, Richardson has been one of the best shooters in the league, but can just a few months with Spoelstra really turn a 31 percent college shooter into a lights-out 3-point machine?
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Richardson has been a rock star since the All-Star break, but the small sample size and lack of 3-point success in college is enough cause for at least mild hesitation. He’s coming off a game against the Lakers in which he missed all eight of his 3-point attempts, proving he is mortal after all. Still, the Heat are getting a lot more out a second round pick than they probably expected at this point, and Richardson seems to be a lock in what will be there playoff rotation. We’ll see if his hot shooting will continue into the post-season, when it will matter most.