Heat already know exactly how their Terry Rozier fiasco ends

This is inevitable.
Nov 12, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA;  Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier (2) walks off the court after the game against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Nov 12, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier (2) walks off the court after the game against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat have made their feelings about Terry Rozier perfectly clear. And you know what? It doesn’t. We already know how this relationship is going to end: with a buyout…after the trade deadline.

Writing for The Stein Line, NBA insider Jake Fischer notes that there is “scant interest” in Rozier, and his $26.6 million expiring contract. Miami, of course, seems willing to move him for just about anything. As Fischer also explains, the Heat could have “some interest” in brokering a buyout, but no agreement is considered “imminent.”

This tracks with conventional wisdom, and common sense. Rozier is coming off a season in which he averaged his fewest points since 2018-19, and shot under 30 percent from three. His value is at its nadir. And while moving him is not impossible, it’s also not in the cards.

The real reason the Heat won’t trade Rozier

Expiring deals have value to teams looking to lop off salary. If they wanted, the Heat could probably contact the Portland Trail Blazers about cobbling together a package for Jerami Grant, and the three years, $102.6 million left on his contract. 

They won’t do that. And not just because Grant is a questionable fit. 

Miami has designs on opening cap space next summer, or more likely, during the 2027 offseason. Taking on money that spills past 2025-26 is a no-go if it wants to maximize financial flexibility for free agency, and even more importantly, on the trade market.

This is almost assuredly why Tyler Herro will not get an extension once he becomes eligible. And if the Heat aren’t willing to compromise flexibility for an All-Star, they’re not going to do it just to jettison a contract that comes off the books in one year’s time anyway.

Scenarios exist in which Miami converts Rozer into someone else on an expiring contact who can actually help the team. That deal won’t be made, either. The Heat needed to give up a 2032 second-rounder just to unload Highsmith’s $5.6 million expiring contract. Greasing the wheels of a Rozier dump will require including an even juicier asset they can’t afford to give up when they’re waiting on the next star to become available.

Get ready for Terry Rozier buyout after the trade deadline

This raises the question: If Rozier is headed for a buyout, why would the Heat wait instead of getting it over with now? 

Well, for starters, they need the 31-year-old to be compliant. He may not be willing to give back much money in a buyout when the market for his services thereafter is likely lukewarm, or even ice cold.

Beyond that, Miami needs to keep its options open. If for some reason a big name becomes available this season, Rozier’s expiring contract instantly becomes a useful chip. Teams unloading superstars tend to be staring down rebuilds. The prospect of imminent salary relief appeals to the vast majority of them. 

Buying out Rozier would leave the Heat with dead money on their books. His cap hit could not be traded in any deal. That would instead force them to use Herro or Andrew Wiggins, if not both of them.

For as much as Rozier reminds Miami of a deal they never should have struck, the damage is already done. Buying him out before February 6, the day after the trade deadline, would only make it worse.